Chevron : May 2026 Chevron Sensitivities and Forward Guidance

Published: 2026-05-07 19:40:56 ET CVX

Published on 05/07/2026 at 07:40 pm EDT - Modified on 05/07/2026 at 07:45 pm EDT

‌Sensitivities and forward guidance‌

Consolidated previous guidance and company statements Published May 7, 2026

Prices and sensitivities

Average prices

Full-year 2026 A/T earnings & cash flow price sensitivity1

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

Brent

$67.88

$69.13

$63.73

$81.13

~$600 MM

Henry Hub (bid week)

$3.44

$3.06

$3.54

$4.66

~$700 MM

Int'l spot LNG

$12.24

$11.56

$10.62

$14.24

~$150 MM

Oil-linked LNG sales are about 10% of the Brent sensitivity; contract LNG sales adjust with Brent on a 3-to-4-month lag

North America natural gas liquids (NGLs) are less than 10% of the Brent sensitivity

Full-year 2026 production sensitivity is approximately 15 MBOED per $10 change in Brent

Corporate guidance

FY2025 actual

1Q26 actual

Full-year 2026 guidance

Production

3,723 MBOED

3,858 MBOED

3,980 to 4,100 MBOED

(+7% to +10% excl. asset sales)

Affiliate distributions2

$5.3 B

$0.3 B

~$4.5 B

Distributions more (less) than income from equity affiliates2

$2.3 B

$(0.4) B

~$2.5 B

Adjusted "All Other" segment earnings3

$(3.3) B

$(0.9) B

$(3.6) - $(4.0) B

Capex (organic)4

$17.3 B

$3.9 B

$18 - $19 B

Affiliate capex

$1.8 B

$0.3 B

$1 - $2 B

DD&A5

$20.1 B

$5.8 B

$23 - $24 B

B/T asset sales proceeds

$1.8 B

$0.1 B

$1 - $3 B

Dividends and buybacks

FY2025 actual

1Q26 actual

2Q26 guidance

Buybacks

$12.1 B

$2.5 B

$2.5 - $3.0 B

Declared Dividends

$6.84 per share

$1.78 per share

Number of shares of common stock outstanding on March 31, 2026, was 1,991,597,732.

Timing effects actuals

$MM

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

$MM

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

1Q26

Upstream - U.S.

(17)

Downstream - U.S.

(52)

(287)

Upstream - INTL

122

102

(1,198)

Downstream - INTL

102

(18)

(1,473)

Upstream - Total

105

145

(1,130)

Downstream - Total

(5)

(1,760)

Other guidance items

Target to hold about $5 B in cash on the balance sheet to support operations around the globe

Estimated 2Q26 upstream turnarounds and downtime impact is (100) to (150) MBOED

Estimated 2Q26 downstream turnarounds and downtime impact to A/T earnings is $(275) to $(325) MM

Estimated 2Q26 affiliate distributions is ~$2.5B

Utilization at the company's Asia refineries is expected to be ~80% in 2Q26

A $1 B TCO loan repayment is expected in 3Q26 and will be recorded within Investing Activities on the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows.

Sources: 2026 Capital Program press release (December 3, 2025), 2025 4Q earnings materials (January 30, 2026), 2025 Form 10-K (filed February 24, 2026), 2026 1Q earnings

materials (May 1, 2026) and Form 10-Q (filed May 7, 2026).

Note: Due to the forward-looking nature, management cannot reliably predict certain components of the most directly comparable forward-looking GAAP measure and is therefore unable to provide a quantitative reconciliation. Previous guidance and company statements provided in this document speak as of the date of the applicable source.

1 Full-year 2026 A/T earnings & cash flow price sensitivity reflects a $1 change in the associated price marker.

2 Full-year 2026 guidance for affiliate dividends is at $60/BBL Brent.

3 Excludes foreign exchange and special items.

4 Represents capital expenditures excluding acquisition costs, lease bonus payments, and other costs associated with the creation of new businesses which were $0.8 B for 2025 and $0.2 B in 1Q26.

5 DD&A excludes equity affiliate depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A), which is recorded within "Income (loss) from equity affiliates" on the Consolidated

Statement of Income.

‌CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS RELEVANT TO FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION FOR THE PURPOSE OF "SAFE HARBOR"

PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995

This document contains forward-looking images and statements relating to Chevron's operations, assets, and strategy that are based on

management's current expectations, estimates, and projections about the petroleum, chemicals, and other energy-related industries. Words or phrases such as "anticipates," "expects," "intends," "plans," "targets," "advances," "commits," "drives," "aims," "forecasts," "projects," "believes," "approaches," "seeks," "schedules," "estimates," "positions," "pursues," "progress," "design," "enable," "may," "can," "could," "should," "will," "budgets," "outlook," "trends," "guidance," "focus," "on track," "trajectory," "goals," "objectives," "strategies," "opportunities," "poised," "potential," "ambitions," "future," "aspires" and similar expressions, and variations or negatives of these words, are intended to identify such forward looking statements, but not all forward-looking statements include such

words. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to numerous risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond the company's control and are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecasted in such forward-looking statements. The reader should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this document. Unless legally required, Chevron undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are: changing crude oil and natural gas prices and demand for the company's products, and production curtailments due to market conditions; crude oil production quotas or other actions that might be imposed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producing countries; technological advancements; changes to government policies in the countries in which the company operates; public health crises, such as pandemics and epidemics, and any related government policies and actions; disruptions in the company's global supply chain, including supply chain constraints and escalation of the cost of goods and services; changing economic, regulatory and political environments in the various countries in which the company operates, including Venezuela; general domestic and international economic, market and political conditions, including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the global response to these hostilities; changing refining, marketing and chemicals margins; the amount and timing of settlements on the company's commodity derivative contracts; the company's ability to realize anticipated cost savings and efficiencies associated with enterprise structural cost reduction initiatives; actions of competitors or regulators; timing of exploration expenses; changes in projected future cash flows; timing of crude oil liftings; uncertainties about the estimated quantities of crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas reserves; the competitiveness of alternate-energy sources or product substitutes; pace and scale of the development of large carbon capture and storage and offset markets; the results of operations and financial condition of the company's suppliers, vendors, partners and equity affiliates; the inability or failure of the company's joint-venture partners to fund their share of operations and development activities; the potential failure to achieve expected net production from existing and future crude oil and natural gas development projects; potential delays in the development, construction or start-up of planned projects; the potential disruption or interruption of the company's operations due to war, accidents, political events, civil unrest, severe weather, cyber threats, terrorist acts, or other natural or human causes beyond the company's control; the potential liability for remedial actions or assessments under existing or future environmental regulations and litigation; significant operational, investment or product changes undertaken or required by existing or future environmental statutes and regulations, including international agreements and national or regional legislation and regulatory measures related to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change; the potential liability resulting from pending or future litigation; the company's ability to achieve the anticipated benefits from the acquisition of Hess Corporation; the company's future acquisitions or dispositions of assets or shares or the delay or failure of such transactions to close based on required closing conditions; the potential for gains and losses from asset dispositions or impairments; government mandated sales, divestitures, recapitalizations, taxes and tax audits, tariffs, sanctions, changes in fiscal terms or restrictions on scope of company operations; foreign currency movements compared with the U.S. dollar; higher inflation and related impacts; material reductions in corporate liquidity and access to debt markets; changes to the company's capital allocation strategies; the effects of changed accounting rules under generally accepted accounting principles promulgated by rule-setting bodies; the company's ability to identify and mitigate the risks and hazards inherent in operating in the global energy industry; and the factors set forth under the heading "Risk Factors" on pages 21 through 27 of the company's 2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K and in subsequent filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Other unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed in this document could also have material adverse effects on forward-looking statements.

As used in this document, the term "Chevron" and such terms as "the company," "the corporation," "our," "we," "us" and "its" may refer to Chevron Corporation, one or more of its consolidated subsidiaries, or to all of them taken as a whole. All of these terms are used for convenience only and are not intended as a precise description of any of the separate companies, each of which manages its own affairs.

Disclaimer

Chevron Corporation published this content on May 07, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on May 07, 2026 at 23:34 UTC.