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Shareholders might have noticed that Viasat, Inc. (NASDAQ:VSAT) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.4% to US$8.99 in the past week. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$1.1b, statutory losses exploded to US$1.07 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Viasat
Taking into account the latest results, Viasat's eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$4.53b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 10% from last year to US$2.70. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$4.54b and US$1.50 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Viasat even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a regrettable increase in per-share losses.
With the increase in forecast losses for next year, it's perhaps no surprise to see that the average price target dipped 5.1% to US$25.00, with the analysts signalling that growing losses would be a definite concern. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Viasat, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$56.00 and the most bearish at US$12.00 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.08% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 15% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.6% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Viasat's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.