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Nikola joins The Stockout show
On Monday’s The Stockout show, Grace Sharkey and I interviewed Tom Schmitt, chief commercial officer of Nikola Corp. Nikola is the leading company that offers alternatively fueled Class 8 trucks. It offers both battery-electric and hydrogen-electric options. Schmitt does not believe that one of those technologies will win out over the other. Instead, as shippers and fleet owners look to reduce their fossil fuel usage and lower their carbon footprints, he expects them to select the option that best fits their individual needs and duty cycles.
Hydrogen boasts a 500-mile max range with only a 20-minute refuel time. Nikola is building out the hydrogen fueling infrastructure starting in California and is looking to build a considerable first-mover advantage. Meanwhile, its battery-electric option has a 300-mile max range with a 90-minute charge time, but there are far more options for charging when compared to hydrogen. 2025 will be the first year in which Nikola has had the two fueling options available for the entirety of the year, which Schmitt believes will help it have a breakout year.
See Monday’s show here and check out the full The Stockout playlist here.
Spot linehaul rates surge to 9-month high
(Chart: SONAR – NTIL:USA)
Spot market conditions for carriers continue to rapidly improve against a backdrop of ongoing diesel price declines. The rapid surge in spot market linehaul rates began in November and has reached its highest level since Feb 1. In the past week, the FreightWaves National Truckload Index (Linehaul Only) rose 8 cents per mile from $1.74 on Nov. 4 to $1.82. Compared to this time last month, the NTIL is up 15 cents per mile from $1.67 on Oct. 12.
The NTIL is calculated as the average daily spot rate subtracted from the estimated cost of fuel, which is calculated based on the average retail price of diesel fuel divided by an estimated fuel efficiency of 6.5 miles per gallon. The formula is NTID – (DTS.USA/6.5mpg). The key value to watch appears to be $1.90. In a post on the X platform, FreightWaves founder and CEO Craig Fuller said, “Trucking spot rates are on the verge of breaking an important technical level. We’ve seen the market test $1.90 and fail to sustain those levels in the past.” Fuller adds that if NTIL breaks though that level and continues to surge, it would, “reinforce our view of a recovery.”
Domestic intermodal demand driving up volume, rates
(Chart: SONAR – ORAILDOML.USA Seasonality view)
October is historically the strongest month for domestic intermodal volume, and sometimes there is retraction in early November, which can be seen in the chart above in 2022 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). So far this year, there hasn’t been any retraction in volume in November (white line – up 6.8% y/y this month and 4.8% y/y for all of Q4 to date), and domestic intermodal volume has traded roughly in line with the seasonal trend of the extraordinarily strong late 2020.