Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Equal-weight

Published: 2025-07-02 20:31:06 ET MS

Published on 07/02/2025 at 20:31

Morgan Stanley points to an improved outlook for Macquarie Group going into the 1Q AGM due to better capital markets, with global M&A up 25% on a year earlier. The analyst's Macquarie deal tracker suggests a soft June quarter but a recovery for global M&A of 10% over the balance of 2025.

Notably, distributions from private markets have recovered to clients and limited partners, which are running at half usual levels after a "drought" since 2018.

Morgan Stanley raises FY26 net profit after tax by circa 2.5% for 8% annual growth, although consensus at 20% for 1H26 is viewed as too high. The addition of northern hemisphere public markets has the potential to add around 5% to net profit after tax forecasts for FY26, or $200m.

Target price lifts to $216, up 9% due to higher valuation multiples and earnings forecasts.

Sector: Diversified Financials.

Target price is $216.00.Current Price is $229.02. Difference: ($13.02) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately -6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).