NRG Energy : First Quarter 2026 Earnings Presentation (5a0bfd)

Published: 2026-05-06 07:44:17 ET NRG

Published on 05/06/2026 at 07:44 am EDT

Q 1 2 0 2 6 E A R N I N G S

N R G E N E R G Y , I N C .

FIRST QUARTER 2026 EARNINGS PRESENTATION

M A Y 6 , 2 0 2 6

T.H. Wharton

TEF Project

A G E N D A

Results C Business Review

Financial Highlights

Closing Remarks

QCA

Robert Gaudette

President C CEO

Bruce Chung

Executive Vice President C CFO

NRG 1Q26 Earnings 3

NRG 1Q26 Earnings 4

(: millions, except per share amounts)

Financial s Operational Results

$1,080 MM Adjusted EBITDA

$1.4G Adjusted EPS1

Top decile safety performance

94% Texas fleet 1Q26 In-the-Money Availability (IMA)

Smart Home customer count +9% YoY

Growth

Initiatives

415 MW COD May 20262

First of 1.5 GW Texas Energy Fund New Capacity

LS Power portfolio closed and integration underway

Texas residential Virtual Power Plant (VPP) program surpassed 200 MW

1+ GW of Bring Your Own Power data center contracting target - on track

Remaining 1.1 GW Texas Energy Fund new natural gas projects - on track

$750 MM organic growth plan (2025-2029) - on track

Disciplined

Capital Allocation Principles3

Maintain top decile safety and ~3x leverage

Completed $817 MM4 in share repurchases

Increased dividend 8%; 7-9% growth target

Capital Allocation 80%

Return of Capital

20%

Growth Investments

Targeting ~3x net leverage within 24-36 months post-LS acquisition - on track

Reaffirming 2026 Financial Guidance; Well-Positioned for the Balance of the Year

GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations can be found on our website at https://investors.nrg.com; 1 Based on weighted average number of common shares outstanding - basic of 207 MM ending March 31, 2026; 2 Late May COD; 3 See slide 9 of 3Q24 earnings presentation for detailed capital allocation principles; 4 Through April 30, 2026

Demand is Accelerating

Data centers, electrification, and manufacturing driving load growth

AI-driven demand accelerating investment cycles

Power Availability is Constrained

Limited dispatchable supply for new large load

Interconnection timelines delaying delivery

Markets Are Responding

PJM and ERCOT implementing reforms to support new capacity

Bilateral contracting enabling faster development

Forecasted Load Growth vs. Supply Additions

ERCOT Peak Load1

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Load

-(10)

PJM Peak Load2

2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Load

Demand Growth is Outpacing Available Capacity, Driving the Need for New Generation

1 ERCOT December 2025 Capacity, Demand, and Reserves Report. Demand reflects total incremental seasonal load at peak load hour; supply reflects total incremental capacity at peak load hour; 2 PJM 2026 Load Report. Incremental load reflects RTO summer coincident peak load; incremental supply based on assets under construction in the interconnection queue, targeted 15 GW Reliability Backstop Procurement (RBP), and anticipated retirements due to environmental requirements

Customers

~8 MM Customers | >100 TWh C&I Load

Direct access to growing, increasingly

complex load

Integrated demand-side capabilities including VPP and demand response

Scaling load management capabilities to support future growth

Generation s Flexible Supply

~25 GW Capacity

Dispatchable fleet across Texas and the East

VPP and demand response capabilities

Optimized to capture value from rising demand

Development

Multi-GW Development Pipeline

1.5 GW TEF projects under construction

5.4 GW development opportunity through GEV/Kiewit venture

Up to 2 GW of PJM uprate opportunities

Serving Demand Today, Building for Future Growth

NRG 1Q26 Earnings 8

(: millions, except per share amounts)

1Q26 Highlights

Three Months Ended

3/31/2026

3/31/2025

Adjusted EBITDA

$1,080

$1,126

Adjusted Net Income

$308

$531

Adjusted EPS1

$1.4G

$2.68

Texas earnings impacted by mild weather and low volatility across the quarter

East results include expected benefit from newly acquired portfolio but negatively impacted from higher supply costs during Winter Storm Fern

West includes lower retail power supply costs and impact of Cottonwood lease termination

Smart Home growth driven by higher customer count and an increase in monthly recurring service margin per customer

Adjusted EPS reflects operating performance described above and incremental

interest expense and depreciation and amortization from the LS Power acquisition

($46)

$1,126

$1,080

(10)

(83)

1Q25 Adjusted EBITDA

Texas

East West2

Smart Home 1Q26 Adjusted EBITDA

Reaffirming 2026 Guidance Ranges

GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations can be found on our website at https://investors.nrg.com; 1 Based on weighted average number of common shares outstanding - basic of 198 MM and 207 MM ending March 31, 2025 and 2026, respectively; 2 Includes corporate activities

(: millions)

$3,050

1,0G7

No Change from Previously Disclosed

123

1,113

407

$310

$2,100

Legacy FCFbG

(midpoint)

$G50

LS Power (midpoint)

2026

Share Repurchases 1,000

Other Related Activities3 113

Excess Cash1

Liability Management s Pref. Divs.

Integration Costs

Share Repurchases

Common Dividends4

Plant s Other Investments

Liability Management/Other2 1,030

Preferred Dividends 67

Reaffirming 2026 Capital Allocation

Plant and Consumer Growth Initiatives5

Other Growth Initiatives

245

1 Excludes Minimum Cash reserved for liquidity purposes; 2 Comprised of $960 MM in debt payments and $70 MM Finance Fees/Other; 3 Other Related Activities includes: 1% 'Federal Excise Tax' on share repurchases executed in prior year (~$13 MM) and shares

repurchased in lieu of tax withholdings where the company in lieu of issuing shares related to certain stock-based compensation settles employee tax obligations in cash (~$100 MM); 4 Assumes average shares of ~214 MM and $1.90 dividend per share;

5 Includes Texas new build expected TEF and incremental debt of $650 MM primarily offset by ~$620 MM in Texas new build capex, ~$40 MM reservation payments, ~$15 MM for plant uprate, and $220 MM Consumer Growth Initiatives

NRG 1Q26 Earnings 11

Deliver Financial, Operational, Safety, and Business Objectives

Deliver on Growth Initiatives

Deliver 2026 organic growth in line with 2025-2029 $750 MM growth plan

Close LS Power portfolio acquisition

Complete construction of T.H. Wharton in late May 2026

Execute toward 1 GW of Texas residential VPP by 2035

Contract at least 1 GW of data center opportunities supporting BYOP energy solutions

Continue to optimize maintenance spend to maintain cycle-appropriate In-the-Money Fleet Availability

Optimize business / portfolio

Disciplined Capital Allocation Plan

Return $1.4 Bn of capital to shareholders

Grow 7-9% annual dividend per share; +8% to $1.90/share (7th consecutive annual increase)

Maintain strong balance sheet

Results C Business Review | Financial Highlights | Closing Remarks | Appendix

NRG 1Q26 Earnings

NRG 1Q26 Earnings 13

(: millions)

Gross Margin: Illustrative Mark-to-Market for Texas Generation-Only Portfolio

Gas Sensitivity

% Hedge1

ATC Power Price in '26 Guidance

Implied GM @ ATC Price

:45/MWh

:50/MWh

202c Base Assumption - :52/MWh

:c0/MWh

:c5/MWh

:75/MWh

:85/MWh

:100/MWh

95-100%

$52/MWh

~50%

<25%

$52/MWh

($150)

($60)

$160

$290

$580

$870

$1,350

($320)

($120)

$290

$520

$990

$1,480

$2,240

($380)

($150)

$360

$640

$1,210

$1,800

$2,710

($460)

($180)

$430

$760

$1,430

$2,120

$3,180

($30)

($40)

($50)

($60)

($70)

($80)

($90)

($100)

$40

$50

$70

$80

$90

$100

Case 1 2 3 Open +$0.25 -$0.25

Forward Curves Do Not Reflect Demand Outlook

12/31/25

Texas Around-the-Clock

4/30/2c

-14% -16% -14% -14% -13%

$58 $50

$64 $54

$64 $55 $64 $55 $64 $56

Texas On-Peak

-13%

-14%

-12%

-10%

$58

$59

$50

$52

$53

$45

$59

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Texas Off-Peak NYMEX Gas

-11%

-9%

-7%

-2%

-8%

$53

$49

$50

$51

$46

$47

$41

$55

$54

Base Earnings Assumptions:

Current Fleet: 45 TWh Economic; 40 TWh Uneconomic • Weather-normal, among other simplifying

Power Prices: Around-the-Clock Blend of Houston and North assumptions

Natural Gas Prices: • Includes T.H. Wharton (late May 2026 COD),

Henry Hub: $3.75/MMBtu Rockland and LS Power assets

Houston Ship Channel: $3.25/MMBtu

$3.72

$3.65

$3.88

$3.58

$3.71

$3.73

$3.61

$3.70

$3.61

$3.64

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

(: millions)

Gross Margin: Illustrative Mark-to-Market for PJM Generation-Only Portfolio

Gas Sensitivity

Case 1 2 3 Open +$0.25 -$0.25

Forward Curves Do Not Reflect Demand Outlook

$53/MWh

($240)

($120)

$710

$1,030

$1,510

% Hedge1

50%

25%

10%

ATC Power Price in '26 Guidance

$53/MWh

Implied GM @ ATC Price

:45/MWh

($140)

($190)

($220)

:50/MWh

($80)

($100)

($110)

202c Base Assumption - :53/MWh

:c0/MWh

$150

$190

$220

:c5/MWh

$240

$320

$360

:75/MWh

$440

$580

$660

:85/MWh

$630

$830

$950

:100/MWh

$930

$1,220

$1,400

($30) $40

($50) $50

($50) $60

12/31/25

$57 $62 $55 $61 $55 $60 $56 $59

$64

PJM Around-the-Clock

21%

11%

4/30/2c

17%

12%

11%

$63

$74

$67 $73

$65 $73 $65 $72

$66 $70

PJM On-Peak

$230

($70)

$80

$53

$390

($70)

$80

($70) $80

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

PJM Off-Peak NYMEX Gas

20%

10%

11%

-2%

-8%

$45 $54

$48 $53

$47 $52 $46 $50 $47 $49

$3.72

$3.65

$3.88

$3.58

$3.71

$3.73

$3.61

$3.70

$3.61

$3.64

Base Earnings Assumptions:

Current Fleet: 25 TWh Economic; 15 TWh Uneconomic

Power Prices: Around-the-Clock Blend of PJM East and West

Natural Gas Prices:

Henry Hub: $3.75/MMBtu

TETCO M3: $3.60/MMBtu

Weather-normal, among other simplifying

assumptions

Includes LS Power assets

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

POSITIONED TO LEAD LARGE LOAD GROWTH

Turbines and EPC Secured for

5.4 GW of New Build Opportunities

2029E

2030E

2031E

2032E

1.2 GW

Balance

Illustrative & subject to change

5.4 GW of turbine capacity under agreement with GEV and Kiewit-TIC

First units could be operational as early as 2029

Critical Equipment & Bridge Power Secured for Initial Buildout

Multiple GW of key electrical equipment secured; procurement underway for remaining

Several hundred MW of bridge power available beginning in 2028 to support early customer load

Sites Advancing and Incremental Capacity Upside

Permitting, interconnection, and site development on track

Evaluating capacity upgrades across LS Power assets

~1-2 GW from CT to CCGT conversions and traditional uprates

POWERING THE FUTURE OF DATA CENTERS

U.S.-Based Fully Integrated Venture

Signed Project Development Agreement

GE Vernova, Kiewit-TIC, NRG: Developer, Operator, OEM and EPC Venture

Benefits Status

Coordinated development, power equipment and EPC ✓ 1.2 GW CCGTs in-service by 2029

delivery ✓ 1.2 GW CCGTs in-service by 2030

GEV - #1 Power OEM Globally ✓ Additional 3.0 GW CCGTs coming online 2030-2032

Kiewit - Most experienced EPC for GE-H class projects ✓ Development activities in progress across all sites

NRG - Leading gas and power platform for large energy customers

Improving Speed-to-Market

NRG 1Q26 Earnings 18

Modeling Assumptions

Assumed Load Factor: >80%

Target Pricing: $80+/MWh3

Target Retail Margin: >$25/MWh

Announced

Locations

Capacity

Term1

Capex

First Delivery

Full Capacity

2Q25

Texas

295 MW

10-20 years

Minimal

2H26

2H30

3Q25

East2

150 MW

10-20 years

Minimal

1H28

2H32

Long-Term Data Center Retail Power Agreements

Securing Premium Retail Agreements

2026

2028

2030

2032

Energized Capacity

5 MW

165 MW

335 MW

445 MW

1 10-year term with two 5-year extension options; 2 Illinois and Maryland; 3 Energy revenue rate price target excludes transmission, distribution, and capacity charges paid directly by the customer

1Q26 REVIEW

Texas Continues to Realize Load Growth

ERCOT Peak Demand

Hit 5 New Record Peaks in Last 12 Months

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Business s Operation Highlights

Top decile safety performance

Strong operational performance driven by resilient plant operations

Seasonal fleet readiness procedures on track

PJM Demand Growth Accelerates

PJM Peak Demand

Hit 5 New Record Peaks in Last 12 Months

Sustained Smart Home Growth

Customers Monthly Recurring Service Margin per Customer1

200

160

120

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

+16%

+8%

1Q24 1Q25 1Q26 1Q24 1Q25 1Q26

Strategic Execution Driving Strength Across All Businesses

1 See slide 34 for Smart Home performance metrics definitions

Disclaimer

NRG Energy Inc. published this content on May 06, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on May 06, 2026 at 11:43 UTC.