In This Article:
As you might know, UroGen Pharma Ltd. (NASDAQ:URGN) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of US$25m leading estimates by 4.1%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystsexpected, coming in at US$0.55 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for UroGen Pharma
After the latest results, the seven analysts covering UroGen Pharma are now predicting revenues of US$133.4m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a substantial 49% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 9.9% to US$2.46 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$141.4m and US$2.66 per share in losses. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers fell somewhat.
The consensus price target fell 7.4% to US$39.93, with the dip in revenue estimates clearly souring sentiment, despite the forecast reduction in losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic UroGen Pharma analyst has a price target of US$64.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$22.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the UroGen Pharma's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of UroGen Pharma'shistorical trends, as the 38% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 46% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 21% per year. So it's pretty clear that UroGen Pharma is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.