niiio finance group AG's (ETR:NIIN) 71% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

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niiio finance group AG (ETR:NIIN) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 71% after a shaky period beforehand. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 29% in the last twelve months.

Since its price has surged higher, when almost half of the companies in Germany's IT industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.8x, you may consider niiio finance group as a stock probably not worth researching with its 2.3x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

View our latest analysis for niiio finance group

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How niiio finance group Has Been Performing

niiio finance group certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue more than most other companies. The P/S is probably high because investors think this strong revenue performance will continue. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Keen to find out how analysts think niiio finance group's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For niiio finance group?

niiio finance group's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 53%. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 116% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to slump, contracting by 9.7% during the coming year according to the sole analyst following the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 9.8% growth, that's a disappointing outcome.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that niiio finance group's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining revenues are likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On niiio finance group's P/S

niiio finance group shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We've established that niiio finance group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S for a company whose revenues are forecast to decline. In cases like this where we see revenue decline on the horizon, we suspect the share price is at risk of following suit, bringing back the high P/S into the realms of suitability. At these price levels, investors should remain cautious, particularly if things don't improve.

You need to take note of risks, for example - niiio finance group has 2 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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