AR
INVESTOR PRESENTATION
NOVEMBER 2024
Legal Disclaimer
This presentation includes "forward-looking statements." Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are not under AR's control. All statements, except for statements of historical fact, made in this presentation regarding activities, events or developments AR expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, such as those regarding our strategy, future operations, financial position, estimated revenues and losses, projected costs, anticipated reductions in letters of credit and interest expense, prospects, plans and objectives of management, return of capital, expected results, future commodity prices, future production targets, realizing potential future fee rebates or reductions, including those related to certain levels of production, leverage targets and debt repayment, future earnings, future capital spending plans, improved and/or increasing capital efficiency, estimated realized natural gas, natural gas liquids and oil prices, expected drilling and development plans, projected well costs and cost savings initiatives, future financial position, future marketing opportunities, the participation level of our drilling partner and the financial and production results to be achieved as a result of the drilling partnership and the key assumptions underlying its projection AR's environmental goals and U.S. and global demand for natural gas, NGLs and oil are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. Although AR believes that the plans, intentions and expectations reflected in or suggested by the forward-looking statements are reasonable, there is no assurance that these plans, intentions or expectations will be achieved. Therefore, actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements. Except as required by law, AR expressly disclaims any obligation to and does not intend to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.
AR cautions you that these forward-looking statements are subject to all of the risks and uncertainties incident to the exploration for and the development, production, gathering and sale of natural gas, NGLs and oil, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond AR's control. These risks include, but are not limited to, commodity price volatility, inflation, supply chain or other disruption, availability and cost of drilling, completion and production equipment and services, environmental risks, drilling and completion and other operating risks, marketing and transportation risks, regulatory changes and changes in law, the uncertainty inherent in estimating natural gas, NGLs and oil reserves and in projecting future rates of production, cash flow and access to capital, the timing of development expenditures, impacts of geopolitical events and world health events, cybersecurity risks, conflicts of interest among our stockholders, our ability to achieve Net Zero Scope 1 and Scope 2 GHG emissions and the costs associated therewith, the state of markets for and availability of verified carbon offsets and the other risks described under the heading "Item 1A. Risk Factors" in AR's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 or any subsequently filed Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made and AR undertakes no obligation to correct or update any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.
This presentation also includes AR non-GAAP measures which are financial measures that are not calculated in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"). Please see "Antero Non-GAAP Measures" for definitions of these measures as well as certain additional information regarding these measures.
Antero Resources Corporation is denoted as "AR" in the presentation and Antero Midstream Corporation is denoted
as "AM", which are their respective New York Stock Exchange ticker symbols.
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)
2
Pure-Play Investment Grade Appalachian Producer
~$11 Bn
Enterprise Value (1)
Ohio
Utica Shale
West Virginia
Marcellus Shale
#5
Natural Gas & NGL
Producer in the U.S (2)
>20 years
Of Premium
Drilling Inventory
Integrated
Headquarters:
Denver, CO
50% of NGLs Exported into Global Market
75% of Natural Gas
Delivered to LNG
Fairways
Investment
Grade Credit
Rating
Midstream
Owns 29% of Antero
Midstream
(NYSE: AM)
2024E Production(3)
2024E Revenue(3)
Natural Gas
64%
45%
NGLs & Oil
36%
55%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1)
Enterprise value as of 11/08/2024.
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 2)
Top producer ranking represents 2024E C2+ NGL guidance or consensus as of 11/08/2024. Pro forma for acquisitions announced to date.
3
3)
Guidance and consensus estimates as of 11/08/2024.
Antero Resources Investment Thesis
AR = "Purest" Way to Invest in the Natural Gas Demand Story
Step Change in Natural Gas Demand
LNG Exports are Largest Driver of Demand Growth
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Source: 3rd party research, April 2024 and S&P Global Platts.
4
AR Has the Largest Low-Cost Inventory
AR Inventory
Appalachia Sub-$2.75/Mcfe Inventory
(Years - Locations Based on 3rd Party Data)
20+ Years of
Premium Inventory
Low Cost, Organic Leasing Program
22
Includes
~$340 MM
of Organic
Leasing
Since 2021
Includes $30 Bn of acquisitions since 2021 due to limited inventory and firm takeaway which added debt to peer balance sheets.
16 16
12
Contiguous Acreage
Position
5
Peer 1
Peer 2
Peer 3
Peer 4
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)
Source: Enverus - September 2023. Peers include CNX, EQT, EXE and RRC. Represents sub-$2.75/Mcfe inventory that meets
5
a 10% IRR threshold.
Compelling Free Cash Flow Story
Cash Flow Drivers
Peer-Leading Breakevens
Liquids Exposure
Premium Takeaway to
LNG Markets
Free Cash Flow Sensitivities (1)
($Bn)
$5.00 NYMEX $8.0
$4.00 NYMEX
$6.0
Unhedged for 2025+
Every $5/Bbl increase in
C3+ NGL price = ~$200 MM in incremental annual FCF
Every $0.25/Mcf increase
in natural gas realizations =
$3.00 NYMEX
$4.0
$2.0
$0.0
~$220 MM in incremental annual FCF (2)
4-Year Cumulative Free Cash Flow (2025E-2028E)
Note: Free Cash Flow is a Non-GAAP metric. Please see appendix for additional disclosures.
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 1) Assumes $40/Bbl C3+ NGL prices. Cumulative Free Cash Flow levels are approximate and do not represent company guidance.6 2) Incremental Free Cash Flow from increased gas prices includes uplift from NYMEX-based ethane sales contracts.
Firm Transport to the LNG Fairway
75% of Antero's Natural Gas is Delivered to the LNG Fairways
Firm Transport to LNG Fairway
(Bcf/d)
2.3
75%
1.9
of Natural Gas
Production(1)
1.0
0.3 Bcf/d Cove Point
0.7
LNG
TGP/CGT/
0.0
GXP
P1
P2
P3
P4
AR is currently
% of Total
75%
34%
12%
42%
0%
selling ~1.0 Bcf/d
Production (1)
directlyto LNG
facilities
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)
Source: Company filings and Antero estimates.
7
1) Represents percent of 2024E consensus gross gas residue production. Peers include CNX, EQT, EXE and RRC.
Not All Transport to the U.S. Gulf Coast is Equal
Henry Hub-Linked
(% of '24E Production)
75%
7% Tier 3
68%
Tier 1 /
23%
TGP 500L
10% Tier 2/3
13%
Tier 1
Peer
Average(1)
"While everything 100 miles back of Henry Hub could be at $3-4/MMBtu regional cash price, Henry Hub cash could find itself at periods of time comfortably above $5/MMBtu."
Tier 3
Cal '24: ($0.21)
Cal '25: ($0.23)
Cal '26: ($0.23)
Cal '27: ($0.28)
Tier 1
Cal '24: ($0.07)
TGP 500L
Tier 2
Cal '24: ($0.28)
Cal '25: ($0.27)
Cal '26: ($0.30)
Cal '27: ($0.29)
TX
Cal '25: $0.00
Cal '26: $0.05
Cal '27: $0.03
Cal '24: $0.07
Cal '25: $0.31
Cal '26: $0.55
Cal '27: $0.52
Antero Firm Transport Delivery Locations
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)
Source: ICE data 2025-2027 strip pricing as of 11/01/2024.
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Note: Tier boxes represent differentials to NYMEX Henry Hub.
1) Peers include CNX, EQT, EXE and RRC.
Drilling and Completion Efficiencies
Total Days per Well (13,000' Lateral)
Increased Completion Stages per Day…
13.9
12.4
10.8
2022
2023
3Q 2024
Significantly Reduces Cycle Time per Pad (1)
12.1
Quarterly
10.7
Record
8.0
2022
2023
3Q 2024
163
137
126
2022
2023
3Q 2024
Note: Percentage increase or decrease arrows represent change from 2022 to 3Q 2024.
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) 1) Cycle time represents days from surface spud date to first production date, normalized for lateral length and intentionally deferred completions.
9
Average of six pads per well for 2022, 2023 and 3Q 2024.
Antero Wells Continue to Outperform Peers
Antero leads its Appalachian peers in well productivity trends, and
importantly, continues to increase its liquids productivity
AR Cumulative Well Productivity vs. Peers (MMcfe/1,000')
800
Well Count
Lateral Length (ft)
+20% vs
Operator
Since
peer avg
Equivalent
700
336
12,773
2020
Peer Average (1)
951
12,416
600
Normalized Cumulative Gas
(MMcfe/1,000')
500
Peer
Average (1)
400
300
200
100
0
0
6
12
18
24
Months On Line
Source: Wellhead production from Enverus public data. Well BTU categorization based on Antero internal BTU mapping data. Processing shrink and NGL yields consistently assigned across all operators based on assigned BTU buckets.
Note: Production data cutoff at 24 months. Peers limited to SW Marcellus Operators with a minimum of 180 wells TIL since 2020. Represents cumulative sum of the average rate-time profile. Assumes no processing for wells with less than 1100 BTU (zero C3+ yield). Represents Enverus lateral lengths for peer average and internal lateral lengths for AR data.
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)
1) Peers include EXE, EQT, and RRC (SW Marcellus wells).
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Disclaimer
Antero Resources Corporation published this content on November 11, 2024, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on November 11, 2024 at 12:48:03.048.