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GLOBAL BRIEFING: Dollar falls, stocks rally, gold jumps after Fed hold

(Alliance News) - Stocks in Europe are expected to join in the global equity market rally following the latest interest rate call from the US Federal Reserve, with the central bank still expecting three 25 basis point cuts this year.

Here is what you need to know before the European market open on Thursday:

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MARKETS

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CAC 40: called up 79.4 points, 1.0%, at 8,240.81

DAX 40: called up 188.7 points, 1.1%, at 18,203.83

FTSE 100: called up 71.7 points, 0.9%, at 7,809.08

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Hang Seng: up 1.9% at 16,852.45

Nikkei 225: up 2.0% at 40,806.97

S&P/ASX 200: closed up 1.1% at 7,782.00

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DJIA: closed up 401.37 points, 1.0%, at 39,512.13

S&P 500: closed up 0.9% at 5,224.62

Nasdaq Composite: closed up 1.3% at 16,369.41

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EUR: firm at USD1.0935 (USD1.0856)

GBP: firm at USD1.2791 (USD1.2717)

USD: soft at JPY150.82 (JPY151.61)

GOLD: up at USD2,203.06 per ounce (USD2,157.96)

OIL (Brent): up at USD86.54 a barrel (USD85.93)

(changes since previous London equities close)

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ECONOMIC CALENDAR

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09:00 EDT Canada Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle speaks

10:00 CET eurozone current account

10:00 CET eurozone flash composite PMI

09:15 CET France flash composite PMI

08:45 CET France business confidence

09:30 CET Germany flash composite PMI

11:00 CET Italy current account

09:30 CET Switzerland interest rate decision

07:00 GMT UK public sector net borrowing

09:30 GMT UK flash composite PMI

12:00 GMT UK interest rate decision

08:30 EDT US current account

08:30 EDT US initial jobless claims

08:30 EDT US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey

09:45 EDT US flash composite PMI

10:00 EDT US existing home sales

10:30 EDT US EIA natural gas stocks

12:00 EDT US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr speaks

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TOP ECONOMIC NEWS

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The Federal Reserve left interest rates unmoved, as expected, while its latest set of projections still suggest three cuts will be in the offing this year. The central bank left the federal funds rate range unmoved at 5.25%-5.50%. "The committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks," the Fed said. "The committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%."

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The Federal Reserve released its latest summary of economic projections, which features the closely-scrutinised dot-plot. The chart suggests policymakers still expect to enact three rate cuts this year, in line with the outlook the December plot offered. The core personal consumption expenditures inflation rate forecast, the Fed's preferred gauge, was nudged higher. A rate of 2.6% is now expected for 2024, hotter than the 2.4% prediction in December. The forecasts of 2.2% and 2.0% for 2025 and 2026 were unchanged.

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell refrained from giving a steer on when interest rates would be cut after projections showed three reductions are still on the cards in 2024. "I really don't have anything for you" on any specific meeting call, he said, stressing decisions would be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Commenting on the strong inflation figures in January and February, Powell said policy makers didn't overly celebrate favourable inflation figures and were not going to overreact to the last two months of strong data. It will be a "bumpy road" towards the Fed's 2% inflation target, he said. Powell reiterated that interest rates had likely peaked but stressed greater confidence was required that inflation was heading sustainably to 2% before dialling back its restrictive policy. "We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle and that if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialling back policy restraint at some point this year."

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Gold rallied to a fresh record above USD2,200 on Thursday as traders welcomed a Federal Reserve signal that it would cut interest rates three times this year. Equity markets in New York and across Asia surged and the dollar retreated in reaction to the US central bank's projection that it would begin easing monetary policy this year. Gold traders also joined the party to push the precious metal to as high as USD2,220 per ounce – building on a rally that has seen it climb almost 12% since mid-February.

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The US has circulated a draft UN Security Council resolution calling for an "immediate ceasefire linked to the release of hostages" in the Gaza Strip, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. "Well, in fact, we actually have a resolution that we put forward right now that's before the United Nations Security Council that does call for an immediate ceasefire tied to the release of hostages, and we hope very much that countries will support that," Blinken said. The US, Israel's main backer, had previously used its UN Security Council veto to block the world body from calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Palestinian territory.

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A top US official said that Washington could not predict when a vital USD60-billion military aid package for Ukraine would be passed in Congress, as Volodymyr Zelensky called for Western air defences after a Russian missile attack killed at least five. A fresh round of aerial bombardments by both sides left civilians dead on Wednesday as strikes escalate in the third year of the war. Kyiv's army is facing manpower and ammunition shortages amid political wrangling in the US Congress that has raised uncertainty over the future of Western support.

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Taiwan's Defence Ministry said it had registered 32 Chinese military aircraft in its airspace within 24 hours. Among the detected aircraft, 20 of them crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan's south-western, south-eastern, and eastern air space, the ministry said. The ministry said it had also detected five vessels. Taiwan had tasked Combat air patrol aircraft, Navy vessels, and land-based missile systems to respond to these activities, the ministry said.

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Japan recorded its second monthly trade deficit in a row in February, according to data from the country's finance ministry. February's trade deficit was JPY379.36 billion, or USD2.52 billion, narrowed year-on-year from JPY928.91 billion, and from JPY1.760 trillion in January. Exports in February rose 7.8% year-on-year to JPY8.249 trillion, while imports edged up 0.5% to JPY8.629 trillion.

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Japan's private sector saw stronger growth in March, according to preliminary survey data on Thursday, while price pressures intensified. The au Jibun Bank flash composite purchasing managers' index, which measures services and manufacturing, rose to 52.3 points in March. It had been closer to the neutral 50-point reading in February at 50.6. The growth was led entirely by the services sector, though the downturn in manufacturing softened somewhat. The flash services PMI rose to 54.9 from 52.9, with service providers seeing the strongest rise in incoming business since last June. Meanwhile, the manufacturing flash PMI edged up to 48.2 from 47.2. Respondents reported that output and new orders fell at a slower pace in March. However, backlogs fell at the strongest pace since 2020 due to spare capacity stemming from the ongoing fall in new orders and higher employment levels.

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Australia launched plans for a global minimum corporate tax of 15%, a move designed to make sure multinationals operating in the resource-rich nation "pay their fair share". "Multinational companies making a profit in Australia should pay tax on those profits in Australia," Treasury Jim Chalmers said, unveiling legislation that could have a significant impact on the world's largest mining and energy companies.

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Australia's private sector expanded at a stronger pace in March, survey data suggested, though manufacturing continued to decline. The Judo Bank Australia composite PMI rose to an 11-month high of 52.4 points in March, from 52.1 in February. Rising further above the 50-point no-change mark, it shows the pace of growth accelerated over the month. The expansion continued to be led by the services sector, where growth helped to offset the ongoing downturn in manufacturing. The flash services PMI edged up to 53.5 from 53.1, the flash manufacturing PMI slumped to a 46-month low of 46.8 from 47.8.

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Australia's unemployment rate dropped in February, according to official data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics said the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.7% last month, from 4.1% in January. The reading was lower than the 4.0% expected by FXStreet-cited market consensus. "The large increase in employment in February followed larger-than-usual numbers of people in December and January who had a job that they were waiting to start or to return to. This translated into a larger-than-usual flow of people into employment in February and even more so than February last year," the ABS said.

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The UK and Australia inked a new defence agreement in Canberra, as they try to boost a fledgling nuclear-powered submarine program with the US. UK defence minister Grant Shapps signed the agreement in Canberra with his counterpart Richard Marles, establishing a legal framework that makes it easier to host troops and share military intelligence. The agreement stops short of a full mutual defence pact, which would bind one side to intervene if the other was attacked. But it does include a "commitment to consult" about emerging threats and establishes an "status of forces agreement", which makes it easier to host soldiers from the other nation.

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A defiant Rishi Sunak insisted he would still be UK prime minister after May's local elections as he dismissed "Westminster gossip" about Tory plots against his leadership. Sunak addressed Conservative MPs in Westminster as he battled to assert his authority following days of speculation about his position. And in a BBC interview he insisted his plan for the country was working and "2024 will prove to be the year that the economy bounces back". Speculation is rife that rebel Conservative MPs are lining up potential successors should Sunak face a no confidence test before a general election. Heavy defeats for the Tories in May's local elections could heap pressure on Sunak. But the prime minister told the BBC he would still be in No 10 after the local elections because "the things that we are doing are making a difference".

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Irish government ministers have rejected calls for an early election following Taoiseach Leo Varadkar's shock resignation as focus shifts to the race to succeed him. Varadkar's resignation has prompted calls from Sinn Fein and other opposition parties in the Dail for a general election. Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin and Green Party leader Eamon Ryan dismissed those demands on Wednesday, signalling a determination that the government should run its full term – which would see an election held in the first few months of next year. Attention is now on the potential race within Fine Gael to succeed Varadkar as party leader and Taoiseach.

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COMPANY CALENDAR

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ABB Ltd - AGM

Banco Santander SA - AGM

Givaudan SA - AGM

M&G PLC - Full Year Results

Nemetschek SE - Full Year Results

Next PLC - Full Year Results

Nordea Bank AB - AGM

Novo Nordisk AS - AGM

Talanx AG - Full Year Results

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TOP COMPANY NEWS

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The Reddit social network was set to make its trading debut Thursday after pricing robustly in an initial public offering that suggested greater investor enthusiasm for new stock issuers. Reddit is set to debut Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker RDDT after an IPO priced at USD34 dollars a share, the company said Wednesday in a statement, which would value the platform at around USD6.4 billion. The entry of Reddit comes as the tech sector is seeing a big slowdown in IPOs since the US Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates.

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Meta, Microsoft, X and online dating firm Match Group hit at Apple for overcharging on app purchases. The four companies filed a rare joint amicus brief in a California court in charge of applying a ruling that Apple must allow companies to link to alternative payment options outside the app store for iPhone users. That ruling was stemmed from a 2020 lawsuit by video gaming giant Epic Games, which has been fighting Apple in courts across the globe for years over its strict app store policies. Apple takes a cut of as much as 30% on all financial transactions in its app shop, prompting complaints about an unfair "tax" on companies.

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US investment firm Apollo has made an USD11 billion offer to buy Paramount Studios, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal citing unnamed sources close to the matter. Paramount's studio division has long been eyed for purchase, with streaming television titan Netflix among companies that have expressed interest in the operation behind movies such as "Top Gun: Maverick," according to the report. Apollo is offering more than the USD7.7 billion market capitalization of Paramount Global, the journal reported. Paramount Global declined to comment for this story, and Apollo did not reply to a request for comment.

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Micron Technology reported a swing to second-quarter profit and a revenue rise, as the computer memory and storage product producer believes it can benefit from an artificial intelligence revolution in the chip space. The Idaho, US-based firm said revenue jumped 58% to USD5.82 billion in the second-quarter to February 29, from USD3.69 billion a year prior. Net income totalled USD793 million, a swing from a loss of USD2.31 billion. Its diluted earnings per share totalled USD0.71, swinging from a loss of USD2.12 a year prior. "Micron delivered fiscal Q2 results with revenue, gross margin and EPS well above the high-end of our guidance range — a testament to our team's excellent execution on pricing, products and operations," Chief Executive Officer Sanjay Mehrotra said.

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Several top European airlines urged EU authorities to follow the US in pushing for increased production of "green" fuels. Last year, as part of the fight against climate change, the EU passed legislation requiring airlines to begin the gradual adoption of sustainable aviation fuels for routes departing EU airports. The legislation provides for incorporating SAF for 2% of their overall fuel mix from next year, rising to six percent in 2030 and then soaring to 70% from 2050. But according to Airlines for Europe, which groups the continent's largest airline groups (including Ryanair, Deutsche Lufthansa, International Consolidated Airlines Group, Air France KLM and easyJet), SAF production in Europe remains embryonic and also lags far behind projects launched in the US backed by Washington's massive "inflation reduction act" plan.

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Ryanair threatened to shut its base at Bordeaux if the southwestern French airport raises its fees, putting 120 jobs at risk according to a union. "The airport I think wants to double our cost, we're not willing to pay double the cost at Bordeaux," Michael O'Leary, head of the low-cost Irish airline, told AFP. "I think there's a real risk we might close the base in Bordeaux maybe at the end of the summer season," he said on the sidelines of an airline conference in Brussels. "We have three aircraft based there, we've got a very successful operation, lots of good employees. But if the response of the airport is 'pay us double the fees', the answer is no. We'll move the aircraft somewhere else." The airport said in a statement to AFP that it "regrets that Ryanair has informed its employees, without talking to Bordeaux airport, of the possibility of closing its base".

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By Elizabeth Winter, Alliance News senior correspondent

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