AR
Weekly Pricing Update
November 11, 2024
This material is intended for benchmark pricing estimates only and does not reflect Antero actual contracted prices
Legal Disclaimer
This presentation includes "forward-looking statements." Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are not under AR's control. All statements, except for statements of historical fact, made in this presentation regarding activities, events or developments AR expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, such as those regarding future benchmark and realized prices, the indexes to which the price at which AR sells its production will relate, the composition of AR's C3+ NGL barrels, the mix of international and domestic sales are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. Although AR believes that the plans, intentions and expectations reflected in or suggested by the forward-looking statements are reasonable, there is no assurance that these plans, intentions or expectations will be achieved. Therefore, actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements. Except as required by law, AR expressly disclaims any obligation to and does not intend to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.
AR cautions you that these forward-looking statements are subject to all of the risks and uncertainties incident to the exploration for and the development, production, gathering and sale of natural gas, NGLs and oil, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond AR's control. These risks include, but are not limited to, commodity price volatility, inflation, supply chain disruption, lack of availability of drilling, completion and production equipment and services, environmental risks, drilling and completion and other operating risks, regulatory changes, the uncertainty inherent in estimating natural gas and oil reserves and in projecting future rates of production, cash flow and access to capital, the timing of development expenditures, impacts of geopolitical events and world health events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, cybersecurity risks, our ability to achieve our greenhouse gas reduction targets and costs associated therewith, the state of markets for and availability of verified carbon offsets and the other risks described under the heading "Item 1A. Risk Factors" in AR's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made and AR undertakes no obligation to correct or update any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.
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Antero's C3+ NGL Composite Barrels
Weekly Benchmark Index Pricing as of 11/11/24 - Net of Shipping (1)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
This data reflects benchmark pricing estimates and does not directly reflect Antero's realized prices
Assumes 2024 AR C3+ NGL
Antero Estimated International Sales (2)
Volumes of 114,500 Bbl/d (3)
45 MBbl/d C3, 10 MBbl/d C4
(Assumes 50% ARA, 50% FEI)
• 50% Europe (ARA) Net of Shipping (1)
Bbl/d
Propane (C3)
Propane
$1.01/gal
25,000
Butane
$1.26/gal
5,000
57%
• 50% Asia (FEI) Net of Shipping (1)
~65 MBbl/d
Propane
$0.93/gal
25,000
Estimated
Butane
$1.16/gal
5,000
60,000
Annualized Mix:
~50% International
Global Weighted C3/C4 Average Price: $42.43/Bbl
~50% Domestic
Antero Estimated Domestic Sales
Normal Butane (C4)
17%
100% Mont Belvieu Linked
~19 MBbl/d
• Mont Belvieu Prices (4,5)
IsoButane (iC4)
Bbl/d
9%
~10 MBbl/d
Propane
$0.81/gal
15,265
Pentanes (C5+)
N. Butane
$1.16/gal
9,465
IsoButane
$1.16/gal
10,305
17%
~19 MBbl/d
Pentanes
$1.55/gal
19,465
Total
54,500
AR's C3+ NGL Barrel Composition
Domestic Weighted Average Price: $46.18/Bbl (3)
Weekly Indicated
Weighted Average
Price (2):
$44.22/Bbl
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)
3
Historical C3+ NGL Pricing
QTD C3+ NGL Price reflects weekly average benchmark pricing estimates for Antero NGL barrel and estimated annual allocation of barrels to domestic
vs. export. Antero's realized prices will differ somewhat due to timing differences and monthly allocation differences.
1Q20
$21.31
1Q21
$40.72
1Q22
$61.55
1Q23
$42.95
1Q24
$40.93
2Q20
$15.55
2Q21
$40.32
2Q22
$60.28
2Q23
$34.16
2Q24
$40.27
3Q20
$22.50
3Q21
$52.68
3Q22
$50.61
3Q23
$36.81
3Q24
$41.30
4Q20
$27.64
4Q21
$58.25
4Q22
$39.88
4Q23
$37.72
4Q24(1)
$44.04
2020
$21.68
2021
$47.82
2022
$52.98
2023
$37.91
2024(1)
$42.28
Current(1)
$44.22
C3+ NGL Price Sensitivity
Bbl/d (2)
+/- $5 per
Days
MMBbls
Bbl Change
Revenue Impact ($MM)
114,500
x 365
= 41.793 x
$5
=
$209
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Natural Gas Pricing
Daily prices are set to equal FOM futures prices in periods that have not yet occurred
1Q24
Pricing Index ($/Mcf)
FOM
Daily
BTU
Realized
Premium / (Diff) to
(% of Volume Sold)
(75%)
(25%)
Blend
Uplift
Price
NYMEX ($/MMBtu)
NYMEX Related (75%) (1)
$2.15
$2.36
TCO (10%)
$1.79
$2.14
Midwest (15%) (2)
$2.20
$2.43
Total
$2.12
$2.35
$2.18
$0.17
$2.35
$0.11
2Q24
Pricing Index ($/Mcf)
FOM
Daily
BTU
Realized
Premium / (Diff) to
(% of Volume Sold)
(75%)
(25%)
Uplift
Price
NYMEX ($/MMBtu)
NYMEX Related (75%) (1)
$1.84
$2.02
TCO (10%)
$1.46
$1.59
Midwest (15%) (2)
$1.59
$1.64
Total
$1.74
$1.89
$1.78
$0.14
$1.91
$0.02
3Q24
Pricing Index ($/Mcf)
FOM
Daily
BTU
Realized
Premium / (Diff) to
(% of Volume Sold)
(75%)
(25%)
Uplift
Price
NYMEX ($/MMBtu)
NYMEX Related (75%) (1)
$2.06
$2.04
TCO (10%)
$1.54
$1.59
Midwest (15%) (2)
$1.73
$1.76
Total
$1.97
$1.96
$1.97
$0.16
$2.13
($0.03)
4Q24
Pricing Index ($/Mcf)
FOM
Daily
BTU
Realized
Premium / (Diff) to
(% of Volume Sold)
(75%)
(25%)
Uplift
Price
NYMEX ($/MMBtu)
NYMEX Related (75%) (1)
$2.49
$2.16
TCO (10%)
$2.11
$1.96
Midwest (15%) (2)
$2.40
$2.15
Total
$2.44
$2.13
$2.37
$0.19
$2.56
$0.01
4Q24 and 2024 daily natural gas prices reflect daily average benchmark pricing as of publication of this presentation.
Antero's realized prices will differ due to timing differences, monthly allocation differences, unplanned and planned maintenance and other downtime.
NYMEX Price ($/Mcf)
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
4Q24
$2.24
$1.89
$2.16
$2.54
Current 2024 Indicated Price Realization
Pricing Index ($/Mcf)
FOM
Daily
BTU
Realized
Premium / (Diff) to
(% of Volume Sold)
(75%)
(25%)
Blend
Uplift
Price
NYMEX ($/MMBtu)
NYMEX Related (75%) (1)
$2.14
$2.14
TCO (10%)
$1.73
$1.82
Midwest (15%) (2)
$1.98
$1.99
Total
$2.07
$2.08
$2.07
$0.17
$2.24
$0.03
Antero 2024 Guidance
$0.00 - $0.10
Note: Assumes average BTU of 1080. FOM and NYMEX prices for April through December represent Intercontinental Exchange futures pricing as of date of this publication. Daily are set equal to FOM futures prices (as daily prices are not available until each respective period has occurred).
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)
1)
NYMEX related volumes assume sales of 33% at CGTLA, 33% at Tennessee Gas (TGP) and 33% at ANR-SE pricing.
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2)
Midwest related volumes assume 50% Chicago City Gate/Rex Zone 3 and 50% Michcon pricing.
Antero Resources: Advantaged NGL Producer
Antero sells export volumes on a spot basis based on ARA and FEI pricing
Antero Advantages
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Appendix and Supporting Information
This material is intended for benchmark pricing estimates only and does not reflect Antero actual contracted prices
Key Terms and Definitions:
• ARA - "Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp." ARA is a port and refining area in the Belgian-Dutch region of Europe.
• CIF - "Cost, Insurance, Freight." CIF means that the seller delivers the goods on board the vessel or procures the goods already so delivered. Note that the CIF ARA LPG prices represent a delivered cargo into Europe.
• FEI - "Far East Index." The Argus Far East Index is the average of the Argus Japan CFR propane quotation and the Argus South China CFR propane quotation. Note that the FEI LPG prices represent a delivered cargo into Asia
• CFR - "Cost and Freight." CFR means that the seller delivers the goods on board the vessel or procures the goods already so delivered.
• Baltic Index - The Baltic LPG Index is a shipping cost estimate based on a voyage from Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia to Chiba, Japan round trip, laden (full) on the outbound journey and ballast (empty) on the return trip, carrying a fully refrigerated cargo of 44,000 MT (+/- 5%) propane, butane, or a mixture. The index is published by the Baltic Exchange.
• FOM - "First of Month Index." The FOM index represents the New York Mercantile Exchange and regional indices natural gas settlement prices for the forthcoming month.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) provides the benchmark pricing Information used in this presentation. For more information, visit https://www.theice.com/energy/natural-gas-liquids
ICE DEFINITION
ANTERO LABEL
HUB
PRODUCT
ARA C3
CIF ARA
Propane Argus Futures
ARA C4
CIF ARA
Butane Argus Futures
FEI C3
Far East
Propane Argus Futures
FEI C4
Far East
Butane Argus Futures
MB C3
MT.B-ENT
Propane OPIS Futures
MB C4
MT.B-ENT
Normal Butane OPIS Futures
Relevant Conversions:
• Propane = 521 gallons per metric ton
• Butane = 453 gallons per metric ton
Antero Internal Shipping Estimates are derived by Antero using several sources, including Baltic LPG Index Futures and broker estimates.
• Rates are adjusted on travel time from Marcus Hook, PA to Northwest Europe (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp Region) and Marcus Hook, PA to Asia (Chiba, Japan).
• Antero's actual shipping rates may differ from these estimates.
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Disclaimer
Antero Resources Corporation published this content on November 11, 2024, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on November 11, 2024 at 12:50:03.517.