Earnings Update: Here's Why Analysts Just Lifted Their The RealReal, Inc. (NASDAQ:REAL) Price Target To US$3.90

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The RealReal, Inc. (NASDAQ:REAL) just released its third-quarter report and things are looking bullish. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of US$148m leading estimates by 3.2%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystsexpected, coming in at US$0.16 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for RealReal

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NasdaqGS:REAL Earnings and Revenue Growth November 7th 2024

Following the latest results, RealReal's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$646.3m in 2025. This would be a notable 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 45% to US$0.44. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$633.8m and losses of US$0.43 per share in 2025. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on RealReal after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts held their revenue numbers steady, they also administered a moderate increase in per-share loss expectations.

Although the analysts are now forecasting higher losses, the average price target rose 5.6% to 3.69, which could indicate that these losses are expected to be "one-off", or are not anticipated to have a longer-term impact on the business. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on RealReal, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$6.50 and the most bearish at US$2.14 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that RealReal's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while RealReal's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

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