Colombia misses Brent windfall as crude export volumes tumble

Published: 2026-05-14 21:15:08 ET JPM

Published on 05/14/2026 at 09:15 pm EDT

Colombia is failing to fully capitalise on surging global oil prices as crude export volumes continue to decline despite Brent trading above $100 a barrel, according to official data and market analysts cited by Portafolio.

The international benchmark recently climbed above $100 per barrel amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to global supply chains. Brent later eased 1.99% to $105.63 a barrel on May 14, although investment banks including Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase warned prices could rise further if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist into June.

Citigroup projected Brent could reach $150 per barrel under a prolonged blockade scenario, while JPMorgan estimated a range between $120 and $130, with upside risks beyond $150 if the conflict deepens.

For Colombia, higher crude prices would normally translate into stronger fiscal income through royalties, taxes and dividends from Ecopetrol. The state-controlled producer estimates every $1 increase in Brent generates an additional COP300bn ($79mn) in cash flow, around COP800bn ($211mn) in EBITDA and close to COP400bn ($106mn) in net profit.

However, data from Colombia’s statistics agency Dane showed oil export volumes dropped 16.8% year-on-year in March to 2.68mn tonnes, even as average prices per barrel rose 29% from the same month in 2025.

The decline meant Colombia generated only $1.57bn in oil export revenue during March instead of a potential $1.88bn had shipment volumes remained stable, implying forgone income of roughly $316mn during the month.

Crude production also remained under pressure. Colombia pumped 740,497 barrels per day in March, down 0.98% from a year earlier and marking a sixth consecutive month below 750,000 bpd. Output remains well below levels above 800,000 bpd recorded six years ago.

The International Energy Agency warned global inventories are shrinking at a record pace. Worldwide oil stocks fell by 117mn barrels in April after declining 129mn barrels in March, intensifying concerns over supply shortages and reinforcing bullish expectations for crude markets.