Mosaic : First Quarter 2026 Presentation
MOS
Published on 05/11/2026 at 06:34 am EDT
The Mosaic Company
May 11, 2026
First Quarter 2026 Results
1
First Quarter 2026 Performance
Consolidated
Revenues
Operating
Earnings (Loss)
Net Income
(Loss)
Adjusted1
EBITDA
Phosphate Potash Mosaic Fertilizantes
$1,426M
($48M)
$115M
$667M
$177M
$275M
$937M
$(422)M
$79M
Net Revenues
Operating
Adjusted1
Net Revenues
Operating
Adjusted1
Net Revenues
Operating
Adjusted1
Earnings (Loss)
EBITDA
Earnings
EBITDA
Earnings (Loss)
EBITDA
Q1 2026 Phosphate Results
Net Revenues
Operating Earnings (Loss)
Key Metrics
Q1 2026
Sales Volumes - million tonnes*
1.9
Production Volumes - million tonnes*
1.6
DAP Selling Price FOB Plant - $ per tonne
$668
Phosphate Cash Cost of Conversion1 - $ per tonne
$124
Blended Rock Cost Consumed in COGS1 - $ per tonne
$86
Idle and Turnaround Expenses - millions $
$50M
Adjusted1 EBITDA
Advantaged raw material access supported production continuity amid global phosphate market uncertainties
Phosphoric acid operating rates improved materially, with three sites at or above 80% and New Wales positioned for higher output post turnaround
Q1 sales volumes reached 1.9MT, highest since Q2'21, reflecting strong commercial execution and international demand
* Tonnes = finished product tonnes
Q1 2026 Potash Results
Net Revenues
Operating Earnings
Key Metrics
Q1 2026
Sales Volumes - million tonnes*
2.2
Production Volumes - million tonnes*
2.1
MOP Selling Price FOB Mine - $ per tonne
$265
MOP Cash Cost of Production1 - $ per tonne
$84
Idle and Turnaround Expenses - millions $
$5
Adjusted1 EBITDA
Belle Plaine benefited from low cost natural gas, Esterhazy volumes improved QoQ with the Hydrofloat project expected to lower costs through the year
Global potash fundamentals remained balanced, with strong demand across North America, Southeast Asia, and China keeping inventories tight into Q2
Q1 Adjusted EBITDA1 was
supported by higher realized prices
Q1 2026 Mosaic Fertilizantes Results
Net Revenues
Operating Earnings (Loss)
Key Metrics
Q1 2026
Sales Volumes - million tonnes*
1.6
Sales Volumes of Produced Products - million tonnes2
0.6
Phosphate Cash Cost of Conversion1 - $ per tonne
$113
Phosphate Blended Rock Cost Consumed in COGS -
$ per tonne
$104
Idle and Turnaround Expenses3 - millions $
$24
Adjusted1 EBITDA
Portfolio actions advanced with the idling of Araxá are expected to improve margins and return profile over time
Production was deliberately curtailed to manage through elevated sulfur costs
In a challenging Brazil credit environment, disciplined risk management improved distribution margin per tonne sequentially
* Tonnes = finished product tonnes sold to third parties
1 See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information
Market Highlights
Commodity
Current $
Since
Feb 27th
YTD
Y-o-Y
10yr Avg
Ag Commodity Prices
Corn
$4.53/bu
3%
3%
3%
0%
Soybean
$11.77/bu
2%
14%
14%
5%
Wheat (HRW)
$6.55/bu
14%
27%
27%
12%
Palm Oil
MYR 4,491/MT
13%
14%
21%
30%
Crop Prices Gain on Persian Gulf Tensions
Ag Commodity Prices
Daily Close of Front Month Contract
Corn, Soy, Wheat $/bu
13.0
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Corn Soybeans HRW Wheat Palm Oil
Palm Oil Ringgits/MT
6,000
5,700
5,400
5,100
4,800
4,500
4,200
3,900
3,600
3,300
3,000
Jan-25 Mar-25 May-25 Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26
Sources: CBOT, MDEX, CME, KCGE
Data through May 7, 2026 8
Strong Demand, Limited Available Nutrient Supply Will Impact Stock to Use Ratios
World Grain and Oilseed Stocks:Use
(Excl. China)
20%
19%
18%
17%
16%
15%
14%
13%
12%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Source: USDA, Mosaic
9
Phosphate Shipments Constrained by Supply
Phosphate Prices
Published Spot Prices
DAP fob NOLA
MAP c&f Brazil
DAP c&f India
DAP fob TPA
$/MT 950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26
Global Phosphate Shipments
DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP
Mil Tonnes 80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25E 26F
Source: Argus, IFA, CRU, Company Reports, Mosaic
Prices as of May 7, 2026 10
Benchmark Stripping Margins Remain Pressured by Raw Material Prices
Benchmark Stripping Margin
$/MT
Jan-21
P: $390/ST NOLA NH3: $270/MT
S: $96/LT
May-26
P: $760/ST NOLA NH3: $825/MT
S: $655/LT
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Jan-26
Source: Argus
Phosphate Leads Sulfur Demand, but Metals are Gaining. Middle East Drives Half of Global Sulfur Trade.
Global Sulphur Demand by Use Global Sulphur Exports
MMT
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
57% 56% 56%
52%
RoW 18%
USA 4%
Canada 12%
2025 Exports
~40 MMT
Middle East 48%
FSU 18%
P acid % of total
10 15 20 25E
Chinese Export Restrictions Reflect Lower Production Rates and Rising Domestic Demand
China Phosphate Exports (DAP Equivalent) China LFP Production
Mil Tonnes NP Historical DAP/MAP/TSP Historical 14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26F
Mil Tonnes 6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26F
Above reflects exports return meaningfully in ~June 2026. Low case highlights ~August export return. Exports of DAP, MAP, TSP, NP included above on DAP equivalent basis.
Compelling Value Drives Potash Demand Growth; Chinese MOP Imports Set Q1 Record on Low Inventories
Global Potash Demand
MOP
China Port Inventory
Including Bonded Warehouses
Mil Tonnes 80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25E 26F
Mil Tonnes
4.0
Min/Max Range (21-25)
2026
2025
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Performance & Strategy Highlights
Performance and Strategy Highlights
NORMALIZE PRODUCTION AND COSTS
REALLOCATE CAPITAL
LEVERAGE MARKET ACCESS
REDEFINE GROWTH
U.S. phosphate operating rates
~80%+ at three sites in Q1; New Wales turnaround completed, ramping in Q2
Potash cash production costs peaked in Q1; Esterhazy ramp (with Hydrofloat) expected to drive costs down through 2026
2026 capex reduced by
$250M to $1.25B
Idled Araxá SSP and sold Carlsbad potash mine1, reducing future capex, ARO, and cash drag
Completed a Florida land holding transaction for
$31 million in Q1 2026
1.9 million tonnes of phosphate sales in Q1 following deferrals in
Q4 2025
Global network enabled Mosaic to serve strong demand in India & non-traditional markets
MF distribution managed through challenging credit conditions with sequential unit margin improvement
Mosaic Biosciences revenues expected to double again in 2026
Rare earths recovery project advanced in Brazil;
U.S. opportunities under evaluation
Constructive Long-Term Macro Tailwinds
Mosaic's Structural Advantage and Strategic Actions
Strategic Actions to Manage Through Market Disruption
IDLED & DEMOBILIZED
ARAXA mining and chemical complex; IDLED PATROCINIO
complex in Brazil
TEMPORARY REDUCTION in
operating rates in the U.S. and Brazil to align with market
conditions.
Production Rationalization
REDUCED
2026 CAPEX by
$250M to
$1.25B
following comprehensive project review
Capital Discipline
$50M
run-rate reduction in support functions and SG&A
$100M
value capture program
$150M+
in targeted annual savings
Cost Reductions
SECURED
molten sulfur access
through U.S. Gulf Coast refineries;
AMMONIA
CONSUMPTION NEEDS
from Faustina production and below-market contracts, some of which are tied directly to natural gas
Structural Input Cost Advantages
Mosaic's Realized Stripping Margin Typically Exceeds Benchmark
Realized stripping margin outperforms the benchmark in most market scenarios.
Quarterly contracted sulfur rates limit exposure to market price volatility.
Internally produced and contracted ammonia provides a cost advantage vs.
non-integrated producers.
Raw material cost timing through COGS smooths stripping margin variance over time.
Quarterly Margin Outperformance vs Benchmark
($/MT)
$200
$100
$0
-$100
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Q4 2023
Q1 2024
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026 Free Cash Flow Above Prior Years
Key Cash Flow Metrics ($ in millions)
Q1 2024
Q1 2025
Q1 2026
Net Cash provided by Operating Activities, before Changes in Assets and Liabilities
$384
$434
$175
Changes in Assets and Liabilities
$(464)
$(391)
$(71)
Net Cash (used in) provided by Operating Activities
$(80)
$43
$104
Capital Expenditures
$(383)
$(341)
$(357)
Free Cash Flow1
$(463)
$(298)
$(253)
First quarter cash flow are seasonally the lowest of the year.
Working capital build in Q1 26 less pronounced than prior Q1's, reflecting a
$122 million reduction in phosphate finished product inventory
Capital Reallocation Update
Proceeds/Value Potential
Strategy
Araxa / Patrocinio
Land monetization
In Progress
Announced idling and demobilization of Araxa and either pursuit of sale or Niobium project at Patrocinio
Several deals expected to be completed in 2026, $31 million in the first quarter
Ma'aden shares
~111 million Ma'aden shares1 with clear path to monetization
Patos de Minas
Completed
Closed in 2025
Taquari
Closed in 2025
Carlsbad
Closed in April 2026
(In million USD)
$135+
$68
$27
$13
2023 2024 2025 2026F
Net Sales
Total countries
with product sales
16
Countries
8-10
Product launches in 2026
Mbio Floresce ® (Brazil)
Refirma Cybellion ® (Brazil)
Product launches
in Q1 2026
2
Innovation Platform
Mosaic
Biosciences' key markets
60+
Total registrations
Registrations
Mosaic Biosciences Expects to Double Net Sales, Fueled by New Product Launches in 2026.
Q2 2026 Guidance
Q2 2026
Phosphate Sales Volumes - million tonnes
1.4 - 1.7
DAP FOB Plant Prices - $ per tonne
$760 - $780
Potash Sales Volumes - million tonnes
1.9 - 2.1
MOP FOB Mine Prices - $ per tonne
$260 - $280
2026 Guidance
Full Year 2026
Potash Production Volumes - million tonnes
9.0
Total Capital Expenditures - billions $
$1.25
Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization - billions $
$1.1 - $1.2
Selling, General, and Administrative Expense - millions $
$520 - $540
Net Interest Expense - millions $
$200 - $220
Adjusted Effective Tax Rate
High 20's - Low 30's%
Cash Tax - millions $
$275 - $325
Sensitivities Table
Pricing & Sensitivities1
FY 2025
Sensitivity
Average DAP fob plant ($/tonne)
$670
$10 price = $60 million adjusted EBITDA
Average MOP fob mine ($/tonne)
$255
$10 price = $83 million adjusted EBITDA2
1 These sensitivities are provided based on 2025 cost structure and realized prices. 24
Contact Information
For all investor inquiries:
Paul Massoud, CFA
(813) 775-4260
Joan Tong, CFA
(863) 640-0826
Bruce Robinson
(813) 997-7505
Reconciliations of non-GAAP Measures
26
Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
Consolidated Earnings (in millions)
Q1 2026
Consolidated net earnings (loss) attributable to Mosaic
$(258)
Less: Consolidated interest expense, net
(55)
Plus: Consolidated depreciation, depletion and amortization
317
Plus: Accretion expense
35
Plus: Share-based compensation expense
10
Plus: Consolidated provision for income taxes
(31)
Plus: Notable items
288
Adjusted EBITDA
$416
Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
Phosphates
Earnings (in millions)
Q1 2026
Operating earnings (loss)
$(48)
Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization
151
Plus: Accretion expense
26
Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss)
(1)
Plus: Other income (expense)
(9)
Less: Earnings from consolidated noncontrolling interests
4
Adjusted EBITDA
$115
Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
Potash
Earnings (in millions)
Q1 2026
Operating earnings
$177
Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization
90
Plus: Accretion expense
4
Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss)
(56)
Plus: Other income (expense)
3
Plus: Notable items
57
Adjusted EBITDA
$275
Reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
Mosaic Fertilizantes
Earnings (in millions)
Q1 2026
Operating earnings (loss)
$(422)
Plus: Depreciation, depletion and amortization
66
Plus: Accretion expense
5
Plus: Foreign exchange gain (loss)
30
Plus: Other income (expense)
(2)
Less: Earnings from consolidated noncontrolling interests
-
Plus: Notable items
402
Adjusted EBITDA
$79
Phosphate Cash Cost of Conversion Reconciliation
Phosphate Costs (in millions)
Q1 2026
Total COGS
$1,423
Less: Depreciation and Accretion expense
141
Less: Miski Mayo Costs
54
Less: Raw Material COGS and Product Freight
578
Less: Change in Inventory
85
Less: Non-Production Costs
246
Less: Cash Cost of U.S. Mined Rock
116
Total Phosphate Cash Cost of Conversion
$203
Production Tonnes (Thousands)
1,642
Phosphate Cash Costs of Conversion per Production Tonne
$124
Potash Cash Cost of Production Reconciliation
Potash Costs (in millions)
Q1 2026
Total COGS
$476
Less: Depreciation and Accretion Expense
93
Less: Canadian Resource Taxes
67
Less: Change in Inventory
31
Less: Non-MOP Production Costs
105
Total MOP Cash Costs
$180
Production Tonnes (Thousands)
2,131
MOP Cash Costs of Production per Production Tonne
$84
Mosaic Fertilizantes Cash Cost Reconciliations
Mosaic Fertilizantes Costs (in millions)
Q1 2026
Total COGS
$902
Less: Distribution Product costs
644
Less: Depreciation and Accretion Expense
70
Less: Change in Inventory
(26)
Less: Non-Production Costs
59
Less: Rock Cost of Production
81
Phosphate Cash Costs of Conversion
$74
Production Tonnes (Thousands)
656
Phosphate Cash Costs of Conversion per Production Tonne
$113
Core Working Capital
(in millions)
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Change
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Change
Accounts Receivable
$1,113
$1,067
$(46)
$1,079
$1,016
$(63)
Inventory
$2,548
$2,783
$235
$3,363
$3,423
$60
Accounts Payable
$(1,157)
$(936)
$221
$(1,172)
$(1,085)
$87
Core Working Capital (Balance Sheet)
$2,504
$2,914
$410
$3,270
$3,354
$84
Free Cash Flow
(in millions)
Q1 2026
Q1 2025
Q1 2024
Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities
$104
$43
$(80)
Capital expenditures
(357)
(341)
(383)
Free cash flow
$(253)
$(298)
$(463)
©2026 The Mosaic Company
1
Disclaimer
The Mosaic Company published this content on May 11, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on May 11, 2026 at 10:33 UTC.