Ingredion Stock Is Believed To Be Fairly Valued

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Jul 20, 2021
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The stock of Ingredion (NYSE:INGR, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being fairly valued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $86.07 per share and the market cap of $5.8 billion, Ingredion stock gives every indication of being fairly valued. GF Value for Ingredion is shown in the chart below.

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Because Ingredion is fairly valued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be close to the rate of its business growth, which averaged 1.4% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 1.33% annually over the next three to five years.

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Investing in companies with poor financial strength has a higher risk of permanent loss of capital. Thus, it is important to carefully review the financial strength of a company before deciding whether to buy its stock. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great starting point for understanding the financial strength of a company. Ingredion has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.25, which is worse than 66% of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods. GuruFocus ranks the overall financial strength of Ingredion at 5 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Ingredion is fair. This is the debt and cash of Ingredion over the past years:

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It is less risky to invest in profitable companies, especially those with consistent profitability over long term. A company with high profit margins is usually a safer investment than those with low profit margins. Ingredion has been profitable 10 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $6.1 billion and earnings of $0.38 a share. Its operating margin is 11.65%, which ranks better than 75% of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods. Overall, the profitability of Ingredion is ranked 7 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Ingredion over the past years:

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Growth is probably one of the most important factors in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus’ research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long-term performance of a company’s stock. If a company’s business is growing, the company usually creates value for its shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. Likewise, if a company's revenue and earnings are declining, the value of the company will decrease. Ingredion’s 3-year average revenue growth rate is in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods. Ingredion’s 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is -6.8%, which ranks worse than 74% of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods.

One can also evaluate a company’s profitability by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the return on invested capital exceeds the weighted average cost of capital, the company is likely creating value for its shareholders. During the past 12 months, Ingredion’s ROIC is 2.54 while its WACC came in at 5.31. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Ingredion is shown below:

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Overall, the stock of Ingredion (NYSE:INGR, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being fairly valued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks worse than 74% of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods. To learn more about Ingredion stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.

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