A week ago, Cincinnati Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:CINF) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and statutory earnings per share (EPS) both coming in strong. Revenues were 17% higher than the analysts had forecast, at US$2.9b, while EPS were US$4.78 beating analyst models by 117%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Cincinnati Financial

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the seven analysts covering Cincinnati Financial, is for revenues of US$10.0b in 2024. This implies a noticeable 6.3% reduction in Cincinnati Financial's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dive 53% to US$7.11 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$9.93b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.88 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Cincinnati Financial's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$131, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Cincinnati Financial at US$143 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$116. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 8.3% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 7.6% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Cincinnati Financial is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Cincinnati Financial's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Cincinnati Financial's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$131, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Cincinnati Financial going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Cincinnati Financial you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.