Otis Worldwide : Third Quarter 2024 Earnings webcast

Published: 2024-10-30 14:29:12 ET OTIS

Corrected Transcript

30-Oct-2024

Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Q3 2024 Earnings Call

Total Pages: 20

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Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Corrected Transcript

Q3 2024 Earnings Call

30-Oct-2024

CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS

Michael Rednor

Cristina Méndez

Senior Vice President-Investor Relations, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Judith F. Marks

Chair, President & Chief Executive Officer, Otis Worldwide Corp.

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OTHER PARTICIPANTS

Nigel Coe

Joseph O'Dea

Analyst, Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Jeffrey Todd Sprague

Chris Snyder

Analyst, Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Julian Mitchell

Patrick Baumann

Analyst, Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst, JPMorgan Securities LLC

MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION SECTION

Operator: Good morning and welcome to Otis's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being carried live on the internet and recorded for replay. Presentation materials are available for download from Otis's website at www.otis.com. I'll now turn the call over to Michael Rednor, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Michael Rednor

Senior Vice President-Investor Relations, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Thank you, Krista. Welcome to Otis's third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Judy Marks, Chair, CEO and President, and Cristina Méndez, Executive Vice President and CFO. Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations excluding restructuring and significant non-recurring items.

A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the appendix of the webcast. We also remind listeners that the presentation contains forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Otis' SEC filings, including our Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Judy.

Judith F. Marks

Chair, President & Chief Executive Officer, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Thank you, Mike, and good morning, afternoon, and evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I hope all are safe and well.

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Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Corrected Transcript

Q3 2024 Earnings Call

30-Oct-2024

Starting with Q3 highlights on slide 3. Otis returned to top line growth in the third quarter as we continued to demonstrate the strength of our service-driven business model with solid third quarter results. In Service, we delivered high single-digit growth in Q3, bringing year-to-date Service organic sales to 6.4% with all lines of business contributing. We achieved maintenance portfolio growth of 4.2% and our modernization backlog increased 12% at constant currency.

Through the first nine months of 2024, we have expanded overall adjusted operating profit margin by 60 basis points and achieved adjusted EPS growth of 8.2%.

In Q3, we generated $381 million in adjusted free cash flow and completed $200 million in share repurchases. Year-to-date, we've generated approximately $900 million in adjusted free cash flow and returned $800 million through share repurchases, as we execute on our disciplined capital allocation strategy.

Otis had several exciting accomplishments recently. For example, our manufacturing hub in Korea obtained ISO 50001 certification. Otis now has 11 manufacturing sites certified through the global standard for establishing, implementing, maintaining, and improving energy management. In addition, we announced the expansion of our Bengaluru manufacturing facility. This will increase our capacity and capabilities to help meet the growing residential, commercial and infrastructure demand for elevators and escalators in India, while also expanding our localized manufacturing strategy in the country.

And last, earlier this month, we're proud to be named one of the world's best employers by Forbes magazine for the third year in a row, reflecting our commitment to our colleague's well-being.

Moving to our orders performance on slide 4. New Equipment orders were down 3% in the third quarter, a sequential improvement versus the first two quarters of the year, despite continued challenging market conditions. Excluding China, orders increased approximately 10%. Orders returned to growth in the Americas, growing more than 20% with excellent performance in North America, while APAC delivered high single-digit growth driven by continued strength in Japan and Southeast Asia.

Orders declined by high single digits in EMEA due to continued weakness in Western and Northern Europe, bringing orders to 8% year-to-date after a strong first half. A greater than 20% decline in China was a result of continued economic softness in the region. Our New Equipment backlog at constant currency was down 3% versus the prior year, although similar to last quarter, the New Equipment backlog, excluding China was up low single digits.

This quarter marked two consecutive years of delivering 4% or greater maintenance portfolio growth in each quarter. And last, within Service, modernization orders increased 3% as we faced a challenging compare from the prior year in major project bookings. And we expect to see a bounce back to solid mode orders growth in the fourth quarter. With mod orders year-to-date up approximately 10%, our modernization backlog increased 12% at constant currency versus the prior year.

As our colleagues across the globe continue to deliver, we have several customer highlights to share from the third quarter. In Melbourne, Australia, Otis will modernize 30 elevators at 101 Collins Street in the Central Business District. Our SkyRise and Gen3 modernization specific products will be featured along with our signature ReGen drives and the Otis ONE IoT platform. Otis installed the building's original elevators in 1989 and has maintained them for the past 35 years.

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Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Corrected Transcript

Q3 2024 Earnings Call

30-Oct-2024

In the United States, we're proud to support the expansion of the St. Luke's University Health, Anderson Campus Hospital in Bethlehem Township, Pennsylvania. Otis will install nine elevators, including five Gen3 Peak and one Gen3 Edge unit for a new five floor addition. The St. Luke's organization has been a valued customer for more than 10 years.

In the Nordics, our local teams have worked closely with customers to add more than 400 units to the portfolio. In Denmark, we've recaptured 275 units with [ph] DELMIA (00:06:21), a leading construction and housing business. And in Sweden, we've recaptured 132 units at Vällingby Shopping Center, the customer making a welcome return to Otis after 10 years.

Reflecting the continued strength of the infrastructure vertical, Otis was selected to provide more than 340 escalators and Gen3 elevators for the Tianjin Metro in China as part of the Metro's New Line 8 and Binhai B1 Line. This brings the total number of Otis units in the city's expanding metro network to more than 2,000. Tianjin Metro has been using Otis equipment for almost three decades.

Turning to Q3 results on slide 5. Otis delivered net sales of $3.5 billion with organic sales up approximately 1%. Adjusted operating profit excluding a $4 million foreign exchange headwind, was up $8 million, driven by the Service segment. Third quarter adjusted EPS grew approximately 1%, or $0.01, in the quarter against a tough compare of approximately 19% EPS growth in the third quarter of the prior year.

Operational performance was partially offset by foreign exchange headwinds. This brings the year-to-date adjusted EPS growth to 8.2%.

With that, I'll turn it over to Christina to walk through our results in more detail.

Cristina Méndez

Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Thank you, Judy. Starting with Q3 segment sales performance on slide 6. Total organic sales growth of 1.2% in the quarter was driven by Service, which was up 7.7%. New Equipment organic sales were down 8.2%, driven by a greater than 20% decline in China as market conditions remained weak. Excluding China, New Equipment sales increased low-single digit. The decline in China was partially offset by low single-digit growth in APAC, driven by strength in Japan and Taiwan, as well as low single-digit growth in the Americas. EMEA was roughly flat as the strength in Southern Europe was offset by Western and Central Europe.

New Equipment pricing was up low-single digits in all regions outside of China. Similar to last quarter, China continues to be under severe price pressure with continued declines of approximately 10% year-over-year, although pricing was relatively flat sequentially.

Services were $2.2 billion, with organic sales growth of 7.7% as we delivered on our expected acceleration from the mid-single digit growth in the first two quarters of the year. We grew in all regions and in all lines of business. Maintenance and repair increased over 6% in the quarter, supported by continued strong portfolio growth.

Maintenance pricing up around 4 points, excluding the impact of mix and churn and a ramp-up in repair volumes. Modernization organic sales accelerated in the quarter, up about 14% bringing year-to-date organic sales to approximately 10% with excellent growth in Asia Pacific, which was up 20%, including contributions widely across geographies.

Turning to Q3 segment operating profit performance on slide 7. New Equipment operating profit of $84 million was down $20 million at constant currency as tailwinds from pricing that continues to flow from the backlog

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Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Corrected Transcript

Q3 2024 Earnings Call

30-Oct-2024

productivity, including the benefits of UpLift and lower commodity costs, were more than offset by the impacts of lower volume and regional and product mix headwinds.

Operating profit margins came in at 6.4%. Year-to-date, New Equipment sales are down over $250 million, and operating profit has declined by $20 million at constant currency versus the prior year. In China, New Equipment has been a revenue headwind for approximately $400 million. That would imply a profit headwind of about $100 million which we have largely mitigated through solid productivity and the benefit of commodity and pricing tailwinds.

Service operating profit of $555 million, increased $40 million at constant currency as [ph] drop (00:11:18) through on higher volume, favorable pricing and productivity, including benefits from UpLift, more than offset annual wage inflation. As a result, operating profit margins remained strong at 24.8% even while facing a difficult prior year compare where margins expanded 90 basis points in the third quarter of 2023.

Year-to-date, operating profit margins have expanded 60 basis points to 24.6%. With the benefit of our various UpLift initiatives, we drove year-to-date adjusted SG&A lower by $18 million while improving as a percentage of sales by 10 basis points year-over-year. On a slight organic sales growth, these cost initiatives are helping to mitigate labor inflation headwinds. Supported by a sustained strong performance in the Service segment, we achieved total operating profit margins of 16.9% in the quarter.

Adjusted EPS grew 1%, or $0.01, in the third quarter. With our operational performance and a lower share count contributing positively.

Moving to cash, we generated $381 million of adjusted free cash flow in the third quarter. And we saw sequential improvement in cash from operations within the quarter. We continue to work to drive cash flow into year-end despite the various macroeconomic challenges that we are facing across our business, most notably in China due to the lower New Equipment orders.

Overall, year-to-date, we grew organic sales 1.2%, with mid-single digit or greater growth in all regions outside of China. With Service as the driver, we have delivered 60 basis points of margin expansion, 8.2% adjusted EPS growth, while returning $800 million to shareholders through share buybacks. We move into the final quarter of the year with continued focus on operational excellence across the business while working to offset the macro headwinds we are facing.

Let me now turn it back to Judy to discuss our 2024 outlook.

Judith F. Marks

Chair, President & Chief Executive Officer, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Now on slide 8. Before discussing our updated 2024 financial outlook, let me first update you on our industry outlook, including giving some color on how we anticipate 2025 markets to shape up.

On the positive side, we now expect the Americas to be roughly flat, up from the prior outlook as customer demand signals are showing signs of improvement. We expect China to be down approximately 15% and this takes our Asia outlook down to a roughly 10% decline. There is no change to our New Equipment outlook in EMEA or APAC. Overall, we expect global New Equipment units to be down high-single digits for 2024. Offsetting the pressure on new equipment markets, the service market remains resilient, and we expect the global installed base to grow mid-single-digits this year as units that were booked a few years ago are coming off warranty and converted into the service space.

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Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Corrected Transcript

Q3 2024 Earnings Call

30-Oct-2024

Looking towards 2025, we expect the global new equipment market to improve despite the new equipment softness in China. We anticipate the combined Americas, EMEA and APAC new equipment markets should be up low-single digits in units. China remains a question mark, but at this point we currently anticipate a decline somewhere in the range of 5% to 10% in units, clearly dependent on the impact of government stimulus measures.

Overall, across all regions, we currently anticipate a sequential improvement in new equipment market growth rates next year versus this year's rates. On the Service side, the installed base should continue to grow at around mid-single digits, a clear demonstration of the resiliency of the industry. We anticipate the modernization market will continue to grow strongly in all four regions.

Turning to our financial outlook for 2024, we now expect sales of approximately $14.2 billion with organic sales growth of approximately 1.5%. Service remain strong across all lines of business for both growth and profit, and Cristina will give more color on this in a moment.

Our sales outlook is at the low end of our prior expectations with the change driven specifically by China New Equipment. Adjusted operating profit is now expected to be up approximately $105 million at actual currency and up about $140 million at constant currency, with the change from our prior outlook similarly driven by China New Equipment. We anticipate adjusted EPS to come in around $3.85, up approximately 9%, driven by strong operational performance and the benefit from a lower share count and continuous improvement in the reduction of our tax rate.

We expect that adjusted free cash flow to come within a range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion and plan to return the cash we generate this year to shareholders through dividends and $1 billion in share repurchases.

We continue to make steady progress with our UpLift program, which is helping to drive a more efficient organization and deliver more value to customers while mitigating some challenges we faced for the past few quarters throughout the globe. Overall, our service-driven business model and overall company strategy remain on track, and we will continue to deliver value to shareholders, including the 9% EPS growth we anticipate this year.

Now, let me hand it to Cristina to discuss our outlook in more detail.

Cristina Méndez

Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Thank you, Judy. Taking a more detailed look at our outlook and starting with sales on slide 9. Total organic sales are expected to be up approximately 1.5%, driven by solid performance in our Service segment. We expect New Equipment organic sales to be down mid- to- high-single digit, driven by a decline in China due to the challenging market conditions that Judy mentioned earlier.

Total Asia is expected to be down high-teens in 2024 with a strong high-single digit growth in Asia Pacific, more than offset by severe declines in China. Our outlook for the Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific are unchanged from the prior guidance.

Overall, the New Equipment segment has performed weaker than we expected this year, driven by the market situation in China. However, the rest of the world has performed better than we projected at the start of the year. And we anticipate the combined growth of Americas, EMEA, and APAC to be mid-single digit up for 2024.

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Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Corrected Transcript

Q3 2024 Earnings Call

30-Oct-2024

Our Service segment continues to perform quite well and has been largely in line with our expectations as we have gone through the year. In line with our prior guidance, we anticipate Service organic sales to grow a bit more than 6.5%. This includes maintenance and repair growth of approximately 6% and modernization growth of at least 9% at or above the high end of our prior range.

We anticipate continued modernization sales momentum in the fourth quarter due to the timing of project execution from the backlog. We expect this to be the third year in a row of Service organic sales growth of 6% or better, offsetting the severe headwinds we have faced in New Equipment over the past years, and demonstrating the power and resiliency of our business model.

Turning to slide 10. At constant currency, operating profit is expected to grow approximately $140 million. In Service, performance this year has been excellent year-to-date and we expect operating profit margin to expand approximately 75 basis points for the full year, driven by volume, productivity aided by UpLift and continued solid pricing.

For New Equipment, operating profit margins are now expected to contract 50 basis points versus the prior year. Tailwinds from productivity, including benefits from UpLift, commodities and pricing from the backlog are being more than offset by volume and mix headwinds emanating from lower China New Equipment sales, as a result of continued market weakness.

So, the updated outlook assumes a similar fourth quarter's organic growth rate in New Equipment to what we saw in the third quarter. And on constant currency basis, we would anticipate a similar dollar decline in New Equipment profit of around $20 million to $25 million with a slightly larger headwind at actual currency.

We expect overall adjusted operating profit margin expansion of 70 basis points driven by Service performance. The update to our outlook is exclusively driven by the change in New Equipment sales driven by China volumes. And we are mitigating this headwind through Service volumes, productivity and pricing.

Turning to cash flow, we expect to achieve adjusted free cash flow in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion. The lower operating profit outlook, coupled with fewer down payments from China New Equipment order volumes, are impacting our expected cash flow for the year. We continue to focus on what we can control to improve working capital, and we expect strong free cash flow ramp up in Q4 similar to last year.

Moving to the 2024 EPS bridge on slide 11. We expect to deliver adjusted EPS of approximately $3.85. This is $0.31 of EPS growth versus the prior year, or approximately 9%, largely driven by operational performance. At constant currency, we expect approximately $0.36 of operating profit growth outside of China, while we anticipate China to be a headwind of about $0.10 to $0.15 for the year.

Reductions in the effective tax rate and a lower share count are anticipated to offset headwinds from higher interest expense and foreign exchange. Minority interest expense naturally move slower due to the weaker China performance.

Let me now give you some additional commentary on two areas. First, China, and second, how we see 2025 shaping up at this point. On China, although we have largely been able to mitigate the significant China impact on adjusted EPS year-to-date, in our EPS bridge, we have included a small range of China outcomes to give some additional color, due to the continued uncertainty in the market.

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Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Corrected Transcript

Q3 2024 Earnings Call

30-Oct-2024

As we exited Q3, the New Equipment backlog in China is down mid-teens, and the book and ship business remained under pressure. While much has been said on the policy front in terms of possible stimulus in the region and we remain optimistic for the policy follow-through as we sit here today, unless the region begins to accelerate into year end, we could see it being upwards of a $0.05 additional headwind to EPS. Lower China volumes and the mix impacts, naturally puts pressure on the exit run rate margin for New Equipment into 2025.

Now, let me talk a bit about 2025, starting with Service. We expect the Service business to continue performing well next year with mid-single-digit or better top line growth and continued margin expansion. While we expect to achieve approximately 75 basis points of margin expansion this year, we said at our Investor Day in February that the Service business over the medium term would achieve 50 basis points or slightly more of margin expansion annually.

So, as you think about the two years combined, we would expect to be somewhere between 100 and 125 basis points of margin expansion within the Service segment. On New Equipment, as in the past few years, excluding China, we feel good about the rest of the world combined growing low-single digit or better in 2025.

While there are still a few months to go which will determine exactly the orders in Q4 and our ending backlog heading into 2025, if we assume that the backlog ends this year down low-single digits. that would be a fairly good starting guidepost for New Equipment top line in 2025.

As Judy mentioned earlier, China remains uncertain for the New Equipment segment for both sales and profit. As without policy change and a stimulus action, we would expect our second half margin rate in New Equipment to persist throughout 2025. The margin rate within New Equipment is being impacted by the meaningful shift in regional mix, with more than 75% of the New Equipment revenue now being driven by sales outside of China. We will continue to work to offset the headwinds that this poses to productivity while continuing to drive the UpLift program and rightsizing our cost to align with the current market conditions.

In closing, our results from the first nine months demonstrate our ability to deliver on our service driven business model. We continue to focus on what we can control, including growing our portfolio, executing on our expanding modernization backlog, and continuing to drive productivity throughout the organization, including UpLift initiatives. We continue to drive results through the remaining of the year to set us up well to perform in 2025.

With that, Krista, please open the line for questions. Thank you.

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Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Corrected Transcript

Q3 2024 Earnings Call

30-Oct-2024

QUESTION AND ANSWER SECTION

Operator: Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Nigel Coe

Analyst, Wolfe Research LLC

Thanks. Good morning, and hope all is well. Thanks for the details on that FY 2025, Cristina. So it seems that China fundamentals are starting to really sort of deteriorate, and I'm just wondering that the message has been, obviously, pricing pressure being offset by deflationary input costs. But I'm just wondering if the OE pressure we're seeing right now whether that's really a function of lower China margins, not just the mix of China? And I'm just wondering if the pricing is getting irrational and whether there's any change in the strategy over the next one or two years within China?

Judith F. Marks

Chair, President & Chief Executive Officer, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Yeah. Thanks, Nigel, and good morning. Listen, the new equipment market, as you heard myself and Cristina say, in China, remains weak. It was down 15% this quarter, similar to second quarter and we think that's how the year is actually going to finish. We are constantly trading off volume, price and liquidity to make sure that our China business remain strong as we go into 2025. We now believe the China segment for 2024 will be at about 415,000 units.

As we've looked and as we've shared, our New Equipment revenue is down fairly significantly, double-digit. Our Service revenue is flattish to up slightly. Our portfolio units are still up high teens. So, the pivot and the strategy we've been making to Service is working, about a third of our revenue now in China is service. And as you heard Cristina say, we're down $400 million in revenue year-to-date in China. We are going to - if you put in our guide, we're going to be down $0.5 billion of revenue in China this year and still have organic top line growth for the company.

Now, when we look structurally at China, our New Equipment total contribution is really only down a couple of points. So, we are still seeing the deflationary environment. We're optimizing commodities to the best of our ability. And really trying for and focused on delivering down a few points, even though pricing remains competitive, it has always been competitive in China on New Equipment. We are not seeing irrational pricing. We're seeing sustained competitive pricing. And a 415,000-unit market to me is still a healthy market in terms of segment size for us to secure the business we want.

The mod market is growing and is picking up nicely, and you'll see us drive mod margin expansion as we grow scale there. Our mod orders year-to-date in China are positive. October was very positive, but for the quarter it was not at the level we wanted. And there was a little bit of resistance as people were waiting to understand more about the equipment renewal incentives that had been announced early in the quarter with not a lot of specificity. We're seeing that pick up. That was prior to the bigger stimulus that was announced later in the quarter. Our Service units are up yet again, high teens, the Service revenue was up 1%.

So, our business in China is reshaping. It's - if you think down $0.5 billion, $500 million, so that's the lowest revenue we've had in China since we've reported in 2017, which was in our Form-10. We did a look back two years, and yet as you look at the contribution even that our China team has made, it is not at that level of drop.

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Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Corrected Transcript

Q3 2024 Earnings Call

30-Oct-2024

So, we're watching mix carefully. Obviously, the other three regions are adding significantly to the mix and the margin and the top line on New Equipment and the Service business, including in China, is doing very well.

Nigel Coe

Analyst, Wolfe Research LLC

Okay. that's great, Judy. That's great color. Thanks very much. And then just a quick one on Service. The flat Service margins year-over-year, you obviously have kept the Service outlook unchanged. Was that sort of your plan for the quarter? And maybe just obviously, the mod mix would have been [ph] adverts (00:32:09), so just maybe a bit more color on in terms of the operating leverage within Services, and whether the labor inflation is actually getting a bit worse there in terms of impacting the margins, perhaps.

Cristina Méndez

Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Hi, Nigel, this is Cristina. So, on Service margins, they are coming broadly in line with expectations. And in fact, when you see sequentially, they are going up, it was 24.7% in Q2, 24.8% in Q4. And this is thanks to the flow- through of good volumes. And you have seen that there was a good ramp-up of Services in the quarter, coming mainly from the timing of repair and modernization. And we also have a very good performance in price. Price was up in the quarter approximately 4 points, excluding the impact of mix and churn. And we also have productivity and UpLift measures and all of this is compensating wage inflation that is broadly in line with expectations.

So, I would say very steady-state performance in Service, in line with expectations. And this can be even opportunity for Q4 as we see modernization is ramping up very nicely.

Judith F. Marks

Chair, President & Chief Executive Officer, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Yeah. Nigel, the other thing, if you recall last quarter, we anticipated repair picking up in the second half of the year and mod conversion picking up in the second half of the year. Both of those are contributing nicely. Repair was up 10%, was really led by the Americas, and mod, if you look at it really how we've performed on the delivery side of mod, we were over 13% in terms of sales. That's going to continue with our [ph] mod (00:33:44) backlog up 12%.

We keep anticipating repair to come - to normalize, so like a point above maintenance, but it looks like we'll wrap this year in fourth quarter again with strong repair, similar to third quarter.

Nigel Coe

Analyst, Wolfe Research LLC

Okay. Thanks, Judy.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey Todd Sprague

Analyst, Vertical Research Partners LLC

Hey. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I hope everyone is well. Hey, Judy, can you also just drill a little bit into mod China, and I guess the specific angle on my question is kind of, if we think about mods globally or certainly

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Otis Worldwide Corporation published this content on October 30, 2024, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on October 30, 2024 at 18:28:04.354.