T. ROWE PRICE EXPERTS SHARE 2025 OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS

In This Article:

Though inflation remains sticky, market conditions appear favorable for a growing U.S. economy and constructive for stock selection

BALTIMORE, Nov. 19, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- T. Rowe Price held its 42nd annual global market outlook press briefing today, featuring a panel of the firm's investment experts sharing their forecasts for the 2025 global financial markets. Speakers included, Blerina Uruçi, Chief U.S. Economist, Ken Orchard, Head of International Fixed Income, Jennifer Martin, Global Equity Portfolio Specialist, Sébastien Page, Head of Global Multi-Asset and Chief Investment Officer, and Donna Anderson, Global Head of Corporate Governance.

Uruçi highlighted her expectation for another year of strong U.S. economic growth, bolstered by positive non-residential investment, continued development of artificial intelligence (AI) related technologies, and the green energy transition. Orchard noted that given resilient economic growth, inflation likely remains stickier than expected, limiting the ability of central banks to cut rates as much as once priced in by the markets. Martin believes that the outlook for global equities appears constructive; the U.S. economy is growing, and consumer and business balance sheets are strong. Page said that while unemployment, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), and the yield curve may point to a recession, when a broader model is employed, the outlook is decidedly more optimistic. Anderson discussed how shareholder activism is shaping the corporate governance landscape and the drivers behind T. Rowe Price's response to be more vocal than in the past.

QUOTES AND KEY OBSERVATIONS

Blerina Uruçi, Chief U.S. Economist, Fixed Income Division

Quote

"Improving productivity could signal the end of generally lackluster growth seen since the global financial crisis. Though rare, some of the factors that have historically driven positive productivity shocks appear to be in place today. With rising labor and non-labor costs, businesses are seeking to maintain output without sacrificing profits. Moreover, investments in capital and intellectual property have advanced AI and other technologies, increasing productivity with high capital and low labor needs."

Key Observations

  • The ingredients are present for another year of robust growth in the U.S. In recent years, healthy expansion in the U.S. has spilled over to the rest of the world, helping offset the softness in Europe and China. We expect this to continue in 2025.

  • The positive fiscal impulse in the U.S. is now fading, but measures like the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act will ensure further disbursement of tax incentives and industry specific grants during the coming years.

  • Despite this positive backdrop, job creation will likely slow down next year as companies have front-loaded hiring and are likely to focus on productivity improvements. Without a catalyst for mass layoffs, the expectation is for unemployment rates to remain low.

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