AGL
Wolfe
Investor
Presentation
November 19, 2024
Copyright © 2024 agilon health
Key Takeaways
Strengthening the business for long-term success off strong and improving partner base
Structural demand and business fundamentals strong despite macro headwinds
Robust growth has been a near-term headwind, but expect long-term powerful as environment and market mix stabilizes
Taking key actions to drive improved profitability, improve execution and further strengthen our business
Improving baseline mix exiting 2024 and stronger jumping off point for 2025
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3
Structural Factors Drive Long-Term Demand
210K PCPs serving 60M seniors (74M by 2032) need a better business model
Accelerating Health Burden
Primary Care Capacity is Strained
% of adults age 65+ with one or more chronic conditions
~10-20% Projected Shortage by 2030
85.6%
56.0%
23.1%
1 chronic
2 chronic
3 chronic
condition
conditions
conditions
100%
50%
0%
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Primary Care Capacity
Growing Senior Population
US Senior Population 2023-2030
74M
60M
2023
2032
MA Enrollment Growing
Share of Medicare Beneficiaries Enrolled in MA
54%
64%
2023
2034
External sources: HRSA State of the Primary Care Workforce; Euromonitor
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4
Pace of Growth in this Environment has Created Near-Term Challenges but Powerful Long-Term Opportunity
Number of
Partnerships
Average Member Vintage (Years)
Existing Members
New Members
525K
365K
160K
225K
140K
143K
82K
365K
51K
143K
225K
92K
2021
2022
2023
2024
10
15
20
26
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.1
Note: 2024 Reflects Q3 2024
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5
Post Recent Exits, all Year 1+ Partnerships Producing Positive Medical Margin
Partnerships being exited were driving AEBITDA loss
MA Medical Margin (2024E, $PMPM, incurred)
Year 1 partnerships performing above Year 2+ mid- performers (room to further mature)
Exiting, Low
Year 2+, Near
Year 2+, Mid
Year 2+, High
Term Path to
Year 1
Performance
Performance
Performance
Profitability
Average Member
3
2
5
4
1
Vintage (years)
Membership*
75k
86k
139k
87k
138k
# Partnerships
2
3
8
7
6
% of Partnerships
13%
33%
29%
25%
(omits exits)
100% of remaining Year 1+ partnerships generating positive
PMPM MM;
>80% are generating positive AEBITDA
Note: *Membership as of Q3 2024
6
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Improving Outcomes and Lowering Healthcare Costs
2023 Standard ACO Gross Savings Rate* by Membership
Gross
Savings
Rate
Membership
STARs Performance by Market Class
4.6
Class of 2018
4.4
Class of 2019
Class of 2020
4.2
Class of 2021
Class of 2022
4.0
4 Star Benchmark
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
*Gross Savings Rate is savings rate after removing all model discounts (comparable across models and tracks)
Copyright © 2024 agilon health.
7
Actions We Are Taking to Strengthen the Platform for Long- Term Success
Exiting 2 unprofitable partnerships
Narrowing '25 exposure to Part D risk
Rationalizing our payor footprint
Increasing conservatism around new partners based on payor dynamics
Copyright © 2024 agilon health.
8
Cash Flow Expectations
Anticipate current cash position and cash flow management levers allow us to manage through macro environment and take action to accelerate the path to profitability and break-even cash flow.
$113
$35
$399
$330
$35
$220
Cash Flow Levers
Q3
FY 24
FY 25
Cash
ACO REACH Cash
Copyright © 2024 agilon health.
9
Disclaimer
agilon health Inc. published this content on November 19, 2024, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on November 19, 2024 at 13:17:09.045.