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It's been a sad week for Essent Group Ltd. (NYSE:ESNT), who've watched their investment drop 12% to US$53.65 in the week since the company reported its quarterly result. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$317m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 5.1% to hit US$1.65 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Check out our latest analysis for Essent Group
Following the latest results, Essent Group's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.31b in 2025. This would be a notable 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$7.06, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.32b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.19 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$66.00. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Essent Group at US$73.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$60.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Essent Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 8.3% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.2% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.4% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Essent Group to grow faster than the wider industry.