Is a Beat in Store for American Airlines (AAL) in Q1 Earnings?
American Airlines AAL is scheduled to report first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 25 before market open.
American Airlines has an impressive earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 119%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s first-quarter 2024 earnings has been revised downward to 21.74% in the past 60 days.
Given this backdrop, let’s see how things have shaped up for AAL this earnings season.
We expect upbeat air travel demand, particularly on the domestic front, to have boosted American Airlines’ top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Passenger revenues, which account for the bulk of the top line, are likely to have been high, strengthening total revenues. Per our model, passenger revenues in the first quarter of 2024 are likely to have increased 2.5% from the first-quarter 2023 actuals.
AAL’s management expects the fuel cost per gallon of $2.8-$2.9 for the first quarter of 2024 (the earlier projection was at $2.65-$2.85). AAL projects the March-end quarter's loss per share (excluding net special items) to be in the lower end of the 15-35 cent range mentioned previously.
First-quarter available seat miles are expected to increase 6.5-8.5%. Total revenue per available seat mile is expected to increase 3.5-5.5% in the first quarter of 2024 from the first-quarter 2023 actuals.
What Our Model Says
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for American Airlines this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.
American Airlines has an Earnings ESP of +6.51% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
American Airlines Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
American Airlines Group Inc. price-eps-surprise | American Airlines Group Inc. Quote
Highlights of Q4
American Airlines’ fourth-quarter 2023 earnings of 29 cents per share (excluding 26 cents from non-recurring items) beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 6 cents. In the year-ago quarter, AAL reported earnings of $1.17 per share. Operating revenues of $13.06 billion decreased 1% year over year. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.02 billion.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are a few other stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors might want to consider as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to beat on their first-quarter 2024 earnings.
Union Pacific Corporation UNP has an Earnings ESP of +0.61% and a Zacks Rank #3. UNP is scheduled to report first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 25 before market open. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
UNP has an impressive earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missing once, the average beat being 1.41%.
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies WAB has an Earnings ESP of +4.98% and a Zacks Rank #3. WAB is scheduled to report first-quarter 2024 earnings on Apr 24.
WAB has an impressive earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 6.63%.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
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Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) : Free Stock Analysis Report
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (WAB) : Free Stock Analysis Report
