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On Holding AG (NYSE:ONON) just reported healthy earnings but the stock price didn't move much. Our analysis suggests that investors might be missing some promising details.
View our latest analysis for On Holding
Zooming In On On Holding's Earnings
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
For the year to September 2024, On Holding had an accrual ratio of -0.49. That indicates that its free cash flow quite significantly exceeded its statutory profit. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of CHF400m, well over the CHF126.0m it reported in profit. Notably, On Holding had negative free cash flow last year, so the CHF400m it produced this year was a welcome improvement.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On On Holding's Profit Performance
As we discussed above, On Holding's accrual ratio indicates strong conversion of profit to free cash flow, which is a positive for the company. Based on this observation, we consider it possible that On Holding's statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! And the EPS is up 56% over the last twelve months. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. Ultimately, this article has formed an opinion based on historical data. However, it can also be great to think about what analysts are forecasting for the future. At Simply Wall St, we have analyst estimates which you can view by clicking here.