On Holding AG Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

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It's been a good week for On Holding AG (NYSE:ONON) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 5.9% to US$53.35. Revenue of CHF636m surpassed estimates by 2.7%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 41% below expectations at CHF0.10 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for On Holding

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NYSE:ONON Earnings and Revenue Growth November 15th 2024

After the latest results, the 22 analysts covering On Holding are now predicting revenues of CHF2.93b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a huge 36% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 98% to CHF0.78. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CHF2.89b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF0.79 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 13% to US$57.57. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on On Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$63.36 and the most bearish at US$35.28 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that On Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 28% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 38% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while On Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

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