Investing in Space: Launch jitters

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It hasn't mattered who you are, or how much time you've spent developing your rocket: The track record for debut launches is ruthless.

Earlier this week, Japan's new H3 rocket failed on its first flight. Earlier this year, ABL's RS1 rocket shut down a few seconds after liftoff. Other newcomers – Virgin Orbit, Astra, Firefly Aerospace – similarly fell short in first tries. Even today's private U.S. launch leaders, SpaceX and Rocket Lab, had their share of failures when first gunning for orbit.

So why are first launches so unforgiving? With Relativity Space on the brink of its first attempt, and ULA aiming for its Vulcan rocket's debut in the coming months, I caught up with George Nield, who understands the risk side of this business as well as anyone. Nield is currently part of NASA's safety advisory group, and has more than three decades of experience in the space industry, including leading the FAA's commercial space office.

"In a launch vehicle, you have lots of different complex systems … and traditionally, we've been talking about expendable launch vehicles. So you've got one try with this hardware to make it work," Nield said. "You're starting off at ground level – a standing start – and you're hoping to go all the way to Mach 25."

"That's a pretty challenging thing to do the first time out, when you don't necessarily understand everything you'd like to know about your system and how it performs, where the margins are, and what all of the factors are that are going to influence the performance," Nield added.

Nield analogized developing a rocket to flying an aircraft for the first time. The latter "can crawl walk run" with taxi tests and short flights, and steadily "expand the envelope" to greater speeds and higher altitudes before ever putting passengers onboard or entering commercial service.

"There's very little of that you can do once you leave the launchpad," Nield said.

While most of the rockets we're talking about here are expendable, Nield noted SpaceX's Grasshopper tests as showing how rockets can adapt to a more aviation-like, step-by-step approach of increasingly ambitious flights. 

"We're finally transitioning to a reusable launch vehicle mentality, and I think you're going to see more and more of that kind of testing," Nield said.

But even with one-off rockets, Nield remains "very bullish" on the launch market.

"It's easy for people to quote those examples … and maybe think, 'Oh, well, we shouldn't have this many companies trying to build rockets," Nield said. "It may never be the kind of industry that an investor is going to have a sure-thing pay back, so buyer beware in terms of what you're putting your money into." 

• Space Force assigns Cape Canaveral launchpads to quartet of companies: As part of a broader allocation strategy, Space Launch Delta 45 announced launch complexes for ABL Space at SLC-15, Stoke Space at SLC-14, with Phantom Space and Vaya Space sharing SLC-13. – Space Force
• Arianespace concludes investigation into Vega C rocket failure, finding that the cause was unexpected erosion within the nozzle of the Zefiro 40 solid rocket engine on the second stage. However, Ukraine's space agency disputed the investigation's findings, saying the conclusion that it was the Ukrainian-made system's failure was "premature," and that it "casts a shadow over the reputation" of the country's industry. – Arianespace / State Space Agency of Ukraine
• SpaceX launches 15th mission of the year, with a Falcon 9 rocket carrying 51 Starlink satellites to orbit and its booster landing for a 12th time. – Read more
• NASA's suborbital crew program changes focus. An agency official said the effort is now "much broader" than just flying NASA astronauts for training, aiming to include scientists and engineers on research missions as well, and looks to further the safety of suborbital spaceflights. – SpaceNews
• SiriusXM cuts 8% of workforce: The satellite media company is eliminating about 475 jobs, citing the "uncertain economic environment." – CNBC
• ISS dodges Satellogic imagery satellite, with the space station adjusting its position in a maneuver to avoid a possible close approach between it and NewSat-17. – SpaceNews
• European Space Agency proposes a time zone for the moon: While ESA said it does not intend to lead the effort, the space agency called creating a lunar time zone "a problem we need to tackle" with international coordination. – New York Times
• SpaceX acquisition of Swarm shows benefit in new Starlink thrusters: The company highlights the argon Hall thrusters that are powering the Starlink V2 Mini satellites, with Swarm cofounder Benjamin Longmier noting that it was 556 days from a clean-sheet design to flying in orbit. – TechCrunch

• Lunar company ispace to list on Tokyo stock exchange with an IPO planned for April 12, shortly before its first mission attempts to land on the moon. – ispace
• Raytheon wins $250 million award for missile-tracking system, with a contract from the DoD's Space Development Agency to build seven satellites as a part of the "Tracking Layer Tranche 1." The missile defense constellation is already set to feature 28 satellites, half built by Northrop Grumman and the other half by L3Harris. – SpaceNews
• German government awards Mynaric with contract under trio of quantum communications programs: The company announced the tech development would be co-funded for up to $5.9 million (5.6 million Euros) between 2023 and 2025. – Mynaric
• Israeli satellite company Gilat to acquire DataPath, a communications firm serving U.S. military and government customers, for an undisclosed amount. – Gilat
• Seattle-based Starfish Space raises $14 million, in a round led by Munich Re Ventures and joined by Toyota Ventures, PSL Ventures, NFX and MaC VC. The company will use the funds to further develop its satellite servicing spacecraft Otter, with a demonstration mission planned for this summer. – TechCrunch
• NASA to award ISS cargo missions through 2030: In a procurement notice, the agency plans to extend existing contracts with SpaceX, Northrop Grumman, and Sierra Space under the Commercial Resupply Services program for missions that would cover flights until the retirement of the space station. – NASA
• Boeing considers bidding Space Launch System rocket for national security contracts: The company said it believes "the proven SLS capabilities can be an asset" for the National Security Space Launch Phase 3 awards. – Aviation Week
• Echostar's Hughes signs deal with Mexican telecom Stargroup for backhaul cell services using the JUPITER system. – EchoStar
• Norwegian ground station company KSAT signs agreement with UAE's space agency to provide communications services for the country's lunar rover, which is flying onboard the first ispace mission and expected to land in late April. – KSAT

• BlackSky sees losses continue to slow in Q4, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $4.6 million, down 68% year over year and lower than Q3. Revenue rose 69% from a year ago, to $19.4 million for the quarter. The company aims to achieve an adjusted EBITDA profit by Q4 of this year, forecasting 2023 revenue to reach almost $100 million. – CNBC
• Momentus saw minimal Q4 revenue as the company continues to build out its Vigoride spacecraft platform. The company reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $15.6 million for the quarter, down slightly from a year ago, and just $120,000 in revenue. Momentus believes it took "great strides in 2022," with the company aiming to fly multiple Vigoride missions in 2023. It had a $33 million contract backlog at year end. – Momentus
• Spire Global hits $100 million in annual subscription revenue, with the company reporting Q4 results that saw losses continue to decline. The satellite data venture delivered revenue of $22.4 million, up 49% from the period a year prior, and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $7.3 million, which was 31% lower than a year ago. – Spire

• Mar. 9: SpaceX's Falcon 9 launching third OneWeb mission from Florida.
• Mar. 10: SpaceX and NASA targeting Crew-5 splashdown, with the astronauts returning a day later than expected due to high winds.
• Mar. 11: Relativity to make second attempt at Terran 1 debut launch from Florida.
• Mar. 11: Rocket Lab's Electron launching Capella satellites from Virginia.
• Mar. 13-16: Satellite 2023 conference in Washington, D.C.
• Mar. 14: SpaceX's Falcon 9 launches CRS-27 cargo mission for NASA from Florida.
• Mar. 15: NASA and Axiom to unveil lunar spacesuit prototype for the Artemis III mission to the moon.