Akzo Nobel N.V. (AMS:AKZA) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.3% to €62.76 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Revenues were €2.6b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at €1.06, an impressive 27% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Akzo Nobel

Taking into account the latest results, Akzo Nobel's 16 analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be €10.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 20% to €3.77. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €10.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.76 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €78.39, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Akzo Nobel at €94.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €65.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Akzo Nobel's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 4.6% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Akzo Nobel.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Akzo Nobel's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €78.39, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Akzo Nobel. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Akzo Nobel going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Akzo Nobel (including 1 which is significant) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.