GLP-1: Winners and Losers in Shifting Consumer Habits
NOVO B.CO
GLP-1 drugs are reshaping consumer habits, with an impact that is still unclear today, but which is poised to weigh more heavily on corporate earnings by 2030.
Kevin Smith
Published on 05/13/2026 at 01:48 am EDT
Deutsche Bank, Citi, PwC, EY, and KPMG agree that "glucagon-like peptide-1" (GLP-1) obesity treatments are altering dietary routines, leading to less snacking, smaller portions, more home-prepared meals, and a greater preference for fresh or protein-rich foods.Citi highlights that investors may now be underestimating the change in the scale of this phenomenon, as the 2023 precedent primarily produced media noise without a major impact on fundamentals. The arrival of oral formats and the expected drop in costs could this time accelerate adoption and make the effects more visible in consumption data.Deutsche Bank and EY also suggest that some of these changes may persist after treatment is discontinued, making the issue more structural. The macroeconomic impact will take time, but if diffusion scenarios materialize, these new habits could become broad enough to affect several consumption segments by 2030.The Battle in SupermarketsAccording to these studies, the best-positioned companies will be those that help consumers eat less and better without giving the impression of sacrificing satiety or convenience. Protein shakes and bars, nuts, fruits, vegetables, fresh meat and fish, functional beverages, and hydration products appear to be the categories most aligned with these new behaviors, as they meet a demand that is more selective and less volume-oriented. PwC observes that GLP-1 users spend approximately 11% less across most food categories, with the sharpest declines in sweet and savory snacks, as well as bakery products.The most exposed categories remain those that rely on impulse, habit, and generous portions. Deutsche Bank specifically identifies chocolates, confectionery, biscuits, ice cream, savory snacks, refined cereals and alcohol as segments more vulnerable to GLP-1 usage. This reading does not necessarily condemn manufacturers exposed to these products, but it should push them to reformulate certain ranges, reduce portions, or move upmarket.Alcohol deserves particular attention, as available data suggests that the decline in consumption can extend beyond the end of treatment and is therefore not merely a temporary effect on appetite. EY-Parthenon indicates that 44% of users drink less alcohol after starting a GLP-1 treatment and that 82% maintain these habits after stopping, pointing toward more selective, less impulsive consumption that is potentially more favorable to premium brands, small formats, and non-alcoholic or wellness-positioned offerings.The Battle in FoodserviceThe restaurant industry is not necessarily threatened by a sharp drop in spending, but rather by a decrease in the frequency of visits, which makes certain chains much more vulnerable than others. Citi observes an 18% drop in restaurant visits among GLP-1 users, while Deutsche Bank notes that spending per visit is higher amongst customers who continue to go out. The most threatened chains are therefore those that depend on repeat traffic, large portions and menus centered on carbohydrates or fats, such as pizza, burgers and desserts.
Conversely, coffee shops, brands perceived as healthier or more linked to social occasions, as well as concepts capable of highlighting proteins, notably steak and chicken, should better absorb the decline in traffic.Beyond food, Citi even mentions an indirect effect on apparel, as weight loss can create a wardrobe renewal cycle. This last point shows that the GLP-1 theme could gradually move beyond food categories alone and weigh on a broader portion of consumption.