Enterprise Products Partners L P : 2026 EPD Supply Appraisal Forecast

Published: 2026-04-14 12:40:10 ET EPD

Published on 04/14/2026 at 12:40 pm EDT

2026 Fundamentals Update

April 2026

N Y S E: EP D

Fundamentals Outlook

GLOBAL DEMAND GROWTH

Petrochemical demand remains the primary driver of global liquid hydrocarbons growth

Petrochemical destocking due to Iran conflict creates tailwinds for cost advantaged crackers

Global liquid hydrocarbon demand is projected to grow by an average of ≈1 MMBPD annually for the next 5 years; NGLs and naphtha continue to account for more than 50% of growth

Low-cost feedstock advantage gives U.S. petrochemicals the edge over Asia and Europe

Despite transport costs, U.S. ethane remains preferred ethylene feedstock globally

Sources: EPD Fundamentals; OPEC+

2026 Update

U. S. PRODUCTION TRENDS

U.S. shale producers announced 2025 capital cuts, but no change to 2026 production guidance

Permian responsible for ≈85% of U.S. liquid hydrocarbons growth with gas/NGL production continuing to outperform

Offshore oil production growth continues into 2028

Haynesville awaits natural gas price signals to unleash upside potential over the next 3 years

Appalachia still faces regulatory and infrastructure challenges despite its large natural gas reserves, both rich and lean

OPEC+

OPEC+ ability to provide market stability diminished with closure of Strait of Hormuz; spare capacity concentrated in Saudi Arabia and UAE

Geopolitical instability, sanctions on Russia and war with Iran remain a wildcard in global oil markets; Russian barrels on the water became spare capacity

Venezuela - next year could prove crucial to the future of its oil industry and oil trade flows, but meaningful growth will take time (2027+)

NATURAL GAS DEMAND

LNG and AI driving major U.S. natural gas demand increase over the next five years

U.S dry gas production has been impacted by very low prices, but we see significant upside to Haynesville production over the next 3+ years with appropriate market signals

Both Texas and Louisiana favorable for AI infrastructure, crypto mining and industrial reshoring

Will U.S. Producers Remain 'Disciplined'?

WTI: Past, Present, and Future

Historical Forward Curve

Producers were disciplined in 2023 - 24 when oil was in the $70 - 80 range

Currently, Forward markets are also signaling $65 - 75/Barrel

Risk of current price spike being short lived (end of hostilities, global recession, etc.)

Source: Bloomberg

EPD U.S. Production Forecast

April 2026 Update

2025: 13.5 MMBPD

2027: 13.9 (+0.4) MMBPD

2030: 14.4 (+0.9) MMBPD

14.5 MMBPD (2025 Forecast)

15 Oil

9.5

NGLs

MMBPD

9.0

2025: 8.0 MMBPD

2027: 8.5 (+0.5) MMBPD

2030: 9.0 (+1.0) MMBPD

9.1 MMBPD (2025 Forecast)

8.5

MMBPD

8.0

7.5

7.0

6.5

6.0

135

130

125

120

Bcf/d

115

110

105

100

Total Natural Gas

2025: 118.1 Bcf/d

2027: 123.8 (+5.7) Bcf/d

2030: 132.5 (+14.4) Bcf/d

130.8 Bcf/d (2025 Forecast)

*Other decline of -3.6 Bcf/d primarily in legacy gas basins with vertical wells Source: EPD Fundamentals, April 2026

120

2025: 103.8 Bcf/d

2027: 108.7 (+4.9) Bcf/d

2030: 116.5 (+12.7) Bcf/d

114.9 Bcf/d (2025 Forecast)

Growth to 2030 by Region Appalachia: +3.2 Bcf/d

Haynesville: +6.8 Bcf/d Eagle Ford: +1.1 Bcf/d Permian: +5.2 Bcf/d

Other*: -3.6 Bcf/d

115

110

Bcf/d

105

100

Dry Natural Gas

Permian Basin

A Prolific Oil Basin with Substantial Rich Gas/NGLs from "Stacks of Pay"

Gas

Oil

Gas

Multiple Layers "Stacked Pays"

Source: EPD Fundamentals

Permian Remaining Locations

Outlook of Future Inventory by Key Operators

Top 10 Permian Operators account for over 75% of remaining inventory with a 25% rate of return on a $60 barrel;

Total inventory (80,000 locations @ $60) is a "moving target" as technology and efficiencies continue to evolve (i.e., longer laterals)

These estimates can be the same YOY, or even higher, which is the case for Diamondback (+900 Barnett locations)

Sources: EPD Fundamentals, Novi Labs

EPD Permian Production Forecast

+24% Growth

2025 to 2030

(≈1.6x rate of Crude Growth)

2025: 3.8 MMBPD

2027: 4.3 (+0.5) MMBPD

2030: 4.7 (+0.9) MMBPD

4.5 MMBPD (2025 Forecast)

April 2026: Permian Rich Gas & NGLS Growing Even Faster

+15% Growth

2025 to 2030

2025: 6.5 MMBPD

2027: 7.1 (+0.6) MMBPD

2030: 7.5 (+1.0) MMBPD

7.6 MMBPD (2025 Forecast)

8.0

7.5

7.0

MMBPD

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

Oil

23% Growth

2025 to 2030

(≈1.6x rate of Crude Growth)

2025: 28.7 Bcf/d

2027: 32.2 (+3.5) Bcf/d

2030: 35.4 (+6.7) Bcf/d

33.9 Bcf/d (2025 Forecast)

Total Natural Gas

5.0

4.5

MMBPD

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

NGLs

23% Growth

2025 to 2030

2025: 22.4 Bcf/d

2027: 25.0 (+2.6) Bcf/d

2030: 27.5 (+5.1) Bcf/d

24.6 Bcf/d (2025 Forecast)

Dry Natural Gas

35 25

Bcf/d

15 10

Source: EPD Fundamentals, April 2026

Permian Basin Trends

Productivity & Longevity

TOTAL NATURAL GAS

28.7 Bcf/d

35.4 Bcf/d

(+ 6.7 Bcf/d Growth)

2025: 33.9 Bcf/d

NGLs

3.8 MMBPD

4.7 MMBPD

(+ 0.9 MMBPD Growth)

2025: 4.5 MMBPD

Annual Production Averages

2025 Actuals

CRUDE OIL

6.5 MMBPD

2030 Outlook

7.5 MMBPD

(+ 1.0 MMBPD Growth)

2025: 7.6 MMBPD

Stacked Pay: Over 18,000 Hz wells completed in ≈25 different named geologic zones last 3 years;

primarily in various Bone Spring, Spraberry and Wolfcamp benches

Producers continue to step-out, pursuing Barnett / Woodford and non-traditional benches along with sour gas targets on the eastern flank of the Delaware Basin

Advances in next generation technology (such as spacing, cube completions, and lighter proppants) enhance hydrocarbon recoveries

Consolidation drives efficiency and the rapid transfer of technology

Note: Annual production figures represent annual average

GOR (Gas:Oil Ratio) Trends in the Permian

Average Gas Peak Rates per Well Continue to Trend Upward

2.50

2,000

3.00

3,000

GOR (MCF/BBL)

2.25

1,500

2.50

2,500

2.00

1.75

1.91

2.02

GOR (MCF/BBL)

1.95 1.95 1.98

2.06 2.02 2.12

2.24

1,000

500

2.00

1.50

2,000

1,500

1.50

2.00

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

1,000

1.00

4.00

2.44

2.42

2.55

2.64

2.42

2.54

2.16 2.17 2.18

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

1,000

3.75

2.99

3.35

2.97

3.14

3.25

3.39

4,000

GOR (MCF/BBL)

1.50

750

3.00

3,000

1.03

0.98

0.97 0.97 0.98 0.97

1.01

1.07

1.14

1.00

500

2.00

2,000

0.50

250

1.00

1,000

0.00

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

0.00

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

New & Improved Permian Gas Curve

GORs Rising Due to Shallower Declines

•

Average Permian Basin gas curve

Compounding effect

485 new wells/month

Over 18 month period, new curve adds over 200 Bcf & 26.5 MMbbl of NGLs (≈365 MMcf/d & 48.5 MBPD on average)

2,000

Previously "unaccounted for" production (+ ≈100 Mcf/d per well)

1,500

Mcf/d

1,000

2026 Curve

2025 Curve

500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Months

What Comes with a new Barrel of Permian Oil?

0000

Previous (2022)

25%

NATURAL GAS

0.5 Barrel*

Natural Gas

(3 Mcf)

25%

NGLs

0.5 Barrel

NGLs

50%

CRUDE

1 Barrel

Crude

2022

1.0 Barrel Crude

+ 1.0 Barrel NGLs and Natural Gas

*Natural Gas is shown in Barrels of Oil Equivalent.

Rich Gas & NGLs Ratios Continue to Grow in the Permian Basin

Today (2025)

28%

NATURAL GAS

29%

NGLs

43%

CRUDE

2025

1.0 Barrel Crude

+ 1.3 Barrels NGLs and Natural Gas

1 Barrel

Crude

0.66 Barrel

NGLs

0.64 Barrel*

Natural Gas

(3.78 Mcf)

Permian Natural Gas Takeaway

New Takeaway Capacity Crucial to Avoid Price Impact

MMcf/d

Announced Pipeline Capacity (no FID)

Permian Gas Production

Additional Pipeline Capacity (FID)

Existing Gas Pipeline Capacity

Forecast

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Waha pricing is drastically improving as additional pipeline capacity comes online

$ value of a Permian barrel supported by the significant improvement in Waha pricing

- Forward gas prices improves producer's profitability relative to recent gas prices

Source: EPD Fundamentals

Natural Gas Demand Outlook

Growth in U.S. Gas Demand by Type 2025-2030 in Bcf/d

Low

High

End Use - Res / Com/ Industrial

Power Generation - Non-AI

AI & Data Centers

Domestic Growth Subtotal

Pipeline Exports - Mexico

Waterborne Exports - LNG

Export Growth Subtotal

Total Growth Bcf/d

Global gas & power demand growth driven by economic growth, AI/data center infrastructure, and incremental industrial demand

Asia & Europe demand for LNG expected

to grow ≈30% by 2030

AI/data center infrastructure requires certainty of power supply to maintain high rates of reliability; natural gas and coal well suited to serve this demand

In addition to associated gas production from the Permian Basin, U.S. dry gas producers (Haynesville, Eagle Ford & Appalachia) have ample resources to meet this incremental demand, with supportive market signals & permitting reform

Sources: EPD Fundamentals, Bloomberg

Bcf/d

Global LNG Demand by Region

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Exporting the U.S. Surplus

Simplified Crude, Natural Gas, Ethane and LPG Balances

MMBPD Crude Oil

≈5.5 MMBPD

Export Potential

Domestic

Demand

25 Bcf/d Dry Natural Gas

≈35 Bcf/d

Export Potential

Domestic

Demand

140

120

100

5 60

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

0 40

MMBPD

4.5

Ethane

3.8

3.0

≈2 MMBPD

Export Potential

2.3

1.5

Domestic

Demand

0.8

0.0

MMBPD

LPG

≈3 MMBPD

Export Potential

Domestic

Demand

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Supply figures represent combined production and imports

Ethane supply shown is total potential supply volume that includes currently rejected ethane Sources: EIA, EPD Fundamentals

World Appetite For LPG Keeps Growing

Demand for LPG Continues to Exceed All Expectations

EPD expects LPG demand to remain strong with ≈300 MBPD of growth annually

Heating and human needs in Non-OECD nations drive continued growth

Global demand growth will absorb growing LPG supply from USA and Middle East

MBPD

Post-Shale

Pre-Shale

2005-2012 Growth:

65 MBPD/year

1% CAGR

2012-2025 Growth:

295 MBPD/year

3.4% CAGR

12,000

11,000

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2,000

Global LPG Demand 2005 - 2025

Global LPG Demand Growth 2025-2030 (MBPD)

2025 - 2030

Annually

Global LPG Demand

Petchem Demand (PDHs)

400 - 700

80 - 140

Heating Demand

800 - 1,200

175 - 250

Total

1,200 - 1,900

255 - 390

LPG Supply

U.S. Supply (EPD View)

350 - 450

70 - 90

Estimated Shortfall -How to Balance?

850 - 1,150

180 - 260

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Sources: IEA and EPD Fundamentals

Waterborne LPG Supply/Demand

The World Will Continue to Need U.S. LPGs

SUPPLY DEMAND

OTHER

EUROPE

AFRICA

OTHER

OTHER ASIA

INDIA

MIDDLE EAST

EUROPE

OTHER ASIA

USA

CHINA

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

MBPD

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

Total Waterborne LPG: 4.9 MMBPD with Asia importing ≈65%

U.S. provides ≈2.3 MMBPD (47%) of waterborne LPG supply

- U.S. exports satisfy 35% of China's demand

Sources: EPD Fundamentals and Kpler; data year to date through October 2025

The U.S. Advantage

U.S. is a Low-Cost Supplier of NGLs to the World

$/MMBtu

Asia Gas Oil

EU Gas Oil

LNG - Asia

Natural Gas - EU

Propane - Europe

Propane - Asia

Propane U.S.

Ethane - U.S.

U.S. Nat Gas

$30

$25

$20

$15

International Demand Market Value

$10

U.S. Supply Price

MAY 26

AUG 26

NOV 26

FEB 27

MAY 27

AUG 27

NOV 27

FEB 28

MAY 28

Source: EPD Fundamentals

U.S. Responsible for Global LPG Export Growth

Growth Driven by Residential Market; >70% of Global LPG Demand

The U.S. is the leading exporter of LPGs globally, which displaces coal and biomass.

The U.S. holds ≈47% of the global waterborne LPG exports(1)

MBPD 5,000

LPG Waterborne Export Growth by Country

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

(1) Sources: EPD Fundamentals and Kpler, data as of January 2026

U.S. Ethane Feeds Global Petchem Demand

Ethane Exported in Many Forms

Over 40% of U.S. Ethane produced is exported as Ethane, Ethylene or Pellets

MBPD

1,400

US Ethane, Ethylene & Derivative Exports in Ethane Equivalent MBPD

Ethylene Derivatives(1)

Ethylene

Ethane

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Sources: USITC, AFPM, Advisian, EPD Fundamentals

Ethylene derivatives reflects the approximate ethylene used in items like HDPE, LLDPE, PVC, Styrene, Ethylene Glycol, etc.

Shown as ethane

: EP

Disclaimer

Enterprise Products Partners LP published this content on April 14, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on April 14, 2026 at 16:39 UTC.