Chevron : June 2025 Chevron Sensitivities and Forward Guidance
CVX
Published on 06/24/2025 at 13:40
Sensitivities and forward guidance
Consolidated previous guidance and company statements Published June 24, 2025
Prices and sensitivities
Average prices
Full-year 2025 A/T earnings & cash flow price sensitivity1
2Q24
3Q24
4Q24
1Q25
Brent
$84.97
$80.34
$74.73
$75.73
~$450 MM
Henry Hub (bid week)
$1.89
$2.15
$2.79
$3.65
~$600 MM
Int'l spot LNG
$11.24
$12.93
$13.93
$14.11
~$150 MM
Oil-linked LNG sales are about 20% of the Brent sensitivity; contract LNG sales adjust with Brent on a 3-to-4-month lag
North America natural gas liquids (NGLs) are less than 10% of the Brent sensitivity
Full-year 2025 production sensitivity of ~10 MBOED per $10 change in Brent
Corporate guidance
Full-year 2025 guidance for affiliate dividends is at $70/BBL Brent, 2Q25 affiliate dividends are expected at approximately $800 - $900MM
Dividends and buybacks
Number of shares of common stock outstanding on March 31, 2025,was 1,746,393,905
Timing effects actuals
$MM
2Q24
3Q24
4Q24
1Q25
Upstream - U.S.
2
13
(132)
8
Upstream - INTL
(57)
77
(123)
(33)
Upstream - Total
(55)
90
(255)
(25)
Downstream - U.S.
28
3
203
(42)
Downstream - INTL
97
257
(113)
2
Downstream - Total
125
260
90
(40)
Other guidance items
Target to hold about $5 B in cash on the balance sheet to support operations around the globe
Estimated 2Q25 upstream turnarounds and downtime ~(105) MBOED mostly driven by Gorgon and planned maintenance at TCO
Estimated 2Q25 downstream turnarounds impact to A/T earnings is $(300) to $(350) MM mostly driven by Pascagoula
Chevron ceased liftings of crude oil production from Venezuela as of April 3, 2025
Production at the Leviathan Platform was temporarily shut-in beginning June 13, 2025
Chevron announced the acquisition of two leasehold acreage positions intended to establish a commercial-scale, domestic lithium business
Sources: 2025 Capital Program press release (December 5, 2024), 2024 4Q earnings materials (January 31, 2025), 2024 Form 10-K (filed February 21, 2025), 2024 Supplement
to the Annual Report (February 21, 2025), 2025 1Q earnings materials (May 2, 2025), 2025 1Q Form 10-Q (filed May 8, 2025), Domestic Lithium press release (June 17, 2025).
1 Full-year 2025 A/T earnings & cash flow price sensitivity reflects a $1 change in the associated price marker.
2 Excludes foreign exchange and special items.
3 Represents capital expenditures excluding acquisition costs, lease bonus payments, and other costs associated with the creation of new businesses which were $0.4 B in 1Q25 and $0.5 B in 2024.
4 As reported, 2024 full-year depreciation expense includes impairments and write-offs of $500 MM. DD&A excludes equity affiliate depreciation, depletion, and amortization
(DD&A), which is recorded within "Income (loss) from equity affiliates" on the Consolidated Statement of Income.
Full-year 2024 actual
1Q25 actual
Full-year 2025 guidance
Production
3,338 MBOED
3,353 MBOED
3,400 to 3,465 MBOED
(+6% to +8% excl. asset sales)
Adjusted "All Other" segment earnings2
$(2.5) B
$(0.8) B
~$(2.5) B
Affiliate dividends
$4.2 B
$1.0 B
~$5 B
Distributions more (less) than income from equity affiliates
$(0.4) B
$0.3 B
~$2 B
Capex (organic)3
$15.9 B
$3.5 B
~$15 B
Affiliate capex
$2.4 B
$0.5 B
~$2 B
DD&A4
$17.3 B
$4.1 B
$17 - $18 B
B/T asset sales proceeds
$7.5 B
$0.6 B
$1 - 2 B
Full-year 2024 actual
1Q25 actual
2Q25 guidance
Buybacks
$15.2 B
$3.9 B
$2.5 - $3 B
Declared Dividends
$11.8 B ($6.52 per share)
$1.71 per share
$1.71 per share
Sensitivities and forward guidance
Consolidated previous guidance and company statements Published June 24, 2025
2025 guidance
Notes
Income from equity affiliates
$1.4 B
Chevron share of TCO after-tax earnings
Net Income
$1.4 B
2025 guidance
Net income
$1.4 B
Distributions more than income from equity affiliates
$2.6 B
+ Dividends
$4.0 B
- Income from equity affiliates
$(1.4) B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities
$4.0 B
Net repayment of loans by equity affiliates
$1.0 B
Fixed loan repayment from TCO to Chevron
Net Cash Provided by Investing Activities
$1.0 B
Net Change in Cash
$5.0 B
Chevron share of TCO free cash flow distributed in fixed loan repayments and dividends
Source: 2025 1Q earnings materials (May 2, 2025).
5 TCO projected free cash flow (CVX share) is expected to be distributed in the form of fixed loan repayments and dividends. Projections do not include 15% withholding tax applicable to dividend distributions. Projections assume all free cash flow is distributed in current year for illustrative purposes - decisions related to actual distributions are made by the TCO Partnership.
Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income
Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows5
TCO 2025 guidance and projected impact on Chevron financial statements @ $70/BBL Brent
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Among the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are: changing crude oil and natural gas prices and demand for the company's products, and production curtailments due to market conditions; crude oil production quotas or other actions that might be imposed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producing countries; technological advancements; changes to government policies in the countries in which the company operates; public health crises, such as pandemics and epidemics, and any related government policies and actions; disruptions in the company's global supply chain, including supply chain constraints and escalation of the cost of goods and services; changing economic, regulatory and political environments in the various countries in which the company operates; general domestic and international economic, market and political conditions, including the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East and the global response to these hostilities; 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risks that such ongoing arbitration is not satisfactorily resolved and the potential transaction fails to be consummated; uncertainties as to whether the potential transaction, if consummated, will achieve its anticipated economic benefits, including as a result of risks associated with third party contracts containing material consent, anti-assignment, transfer or other provisions that may be related to the potential transaction that are not waived or otherwise satisfactorily resolved; the company's ability to integrate Hess' operations in a successful manner and in the expected time period; the possibility that any of the anticipated benefits and projected synergies of the potential transaction will not be realized or will not be realized within the expected time period; the company's future acquisitions or dispositions of assets or shares or the delay or failure of such transactions to close based on required closing conditions; the potential for gains and losses from asset dispositions or impairments; government mandated sales, divestitures, recapitalizations, taxes and tax audits, tariffs, sanctions, changes in fiscal terms or restrictions on scope of company operations; foreign currency movements compared with the U.S. dollar; higher inflation and related impacts; material reductions in corporate liquidity and access to debt markets; changes to the company's capital allocation strategies; the effects of changed accounting rules under generally accepted accounting principles promulgated by rule-setting bodies; the company's ability to identify and mitigate the risks and hazards inherent in operating in the global energy industry; and the factors set forth under the heading "Risk Factors" on pages 20 through 27 of the company's 2024 Annual Report on Form 10-K and in subsequent filings with the
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Other unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed in this document could also have material adverse effects on forward-looking statements.
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Disclaimer
Chevron Corporation published this content on June 24, 2025, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed via Public Technologies (PUBT), unedited and unaltered, on June 24, 2025 at 17:39 UTC.