Antero Resources : NGL Fundamentals
AR
Natural Gas Liquids Fundamentals
September 2024
U.S. NGL Outlook
2024+
Propane Inventory Levels
• Storage inventories are 4% below the year ago level
LPG Exports at Record Highs
Export Premium vs. Mont Belvieu at Record Levels
Shipping Rates Normalize
China PDH Buildout Continues
U.S. Supply Growth Required to Meet Increasing Demand in Asia
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)
Sources: Argus, CME, EIA, Poten and S&P Global Platts.
3
Antero Resources: Advantaged NGL Producer
Antero sells export volumes on a spot basis
based on ARA and FEI pricing
Antero Advantages:
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)
4
Antero Holds Northeast LPG Export Advantage
AR's export capacity is not impacted by near-term U.S. Gulf Coast capacity constraints
U.S. Gulf Coast LPG Export Capacity vs. LPG Exports
(MMBbls/d)
3,500
Existing Export Capacity
Export Capacity Additions
3,000
2,500
Near-term capacity
constraints
2,000
LPG Exports (Actuals)
LPG Exports
(Forecast)
1,500
1,000
500
-
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Source: LPG Exports and forecast per IHS.
5
Improving U.S. LPG Export Fundamentals
Tight LPG Export Capacity Results in Premium Export Differentials
Export Premium vs. Mont Belvieu (1)
($/Gallon)
$0.30
$0.27
$0.25
$0.20
$0.18
$0.15
$0.10
$0.09
$0.08
$0.09
$0.05
$0.05
$0.00
2022
2023
1Q 24
2Q 24
3Q 24-
Current
to-date
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights.
1)
Represents U.S. Gulf Coast Free on Board propane export differential to Mont Belvieu. Current represents September 2024
6
average through 9/23/2024.
NGL Price Trend
Driven by strong exports, C3+ pricing as a percentage of WTI is trending back to historical norms
WTI Oil Price vs. C3+ NGL Price as a % of WTI
($/Bbl)
(% of WTI)
WTI Price (Left Axis)
% of WTI (Right Axis)
$120
80%
$100
70%
$80
60%
$60
50%
$40
40%
$20
30%
$0
20%
58%
C3+ NGL % OF WTI PRICE
AR Monthly Realized C3+ NGL Price
($/Bbl)
$80
$60
$41.13/Bbl
$40
CURRENT AR C3+ NGL
$20
AR C3+ Price
SPOT PRICE
$0
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)
Source: Bloomberg actuals through August 2024. Pricing based on Antero C3+ NGL component barrel consisting of 57% C3 (propane), 9%
7
isobutane (Ic4), 17% normal butane (Nc4) and 17% natural gasoline (C5+). Assumes blended sales of 50% domestic and 50% international.
U.S. Exports of Propane Hit Record Highs in 2024
U.S. Exports of Propane/Propylene, Quarterly Average
(MMBbls/d)
2.0
1.9
1.8
Weekly Record High Set on April 19, 2024 of 2.335 MMBbl/d
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2024 Avg: 1.76
MMBbl/d
2023 Avg: 1.62
1.7
MMBbl/d
China
1.6
PDH
Demand
1.5
2022 Avg: 1.35
MMBbl/d
1.4
1.3
2020 Avg: 1.15
2021 Avg: 1.18
MMBbl/d
MMBbl/d
1.2
1.1
1.0
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)
Source: EIA, S&P Global Commodity Insights
8
U.S. Propane Stocks and Propane Days of Supply
Record Exports Have Helped Reduce Propane
Record Total Demand (Domestic Demand + Exports)
Inventories to 4% Below the Year Ago Level
Drops Days of Supply Below 5-Year Average
U.S. Propane Stocks
(MMBbls)
2023High Inventories Due To:
110
2024 Returns to 5-Year Average:
100PDH Demand from China
90Cold Weather
80
5-Year Range
(2019-2023)
70
2023
Current 2024 Inventories:
60
2024
97.6 MMBbl,
50
5-Year Average
40
30
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)
Source: U.S. EIA
U.S. Propane Days of Supply
(Days)
2024 to date has averaged 2.7 MMBbl/d in
60
Total Demand, with an all-time weekly
record at 3.55 MMBbl/d in January
50
5-Year Range (2019-2023)
40
30
2023
5-Year Average
2024
2024: (-5.3) Days Below
5-Year Average
20
10
0 Days of Supply = Total Propane Stocks / (Domestic Demand + Exports)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
9
The U.S. is the Prominent Incremental LPG Supplier
The U.S. is the incremental supplier and exporter of NGLs for growing global demand
World C2+ NGL Production
(MBbl/d)
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
U.S.
Rest of World
U.S. AND WORLD C2+ NGL PRODUCTION GROWTH FORECAST FOR 2025 vs. 2023
+7% Global Growth
U.S. 2025E vs. 2023:
10% growth
Rest of World 2025E vs. 2023:
4% growth
2,000
0
Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights data as of January 2024
10
*Note: Includes recovered ethane only.
Disclaimer
Antero Resources Corporation published this content on September 25, 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on September 26, 2024 at 00:09:17 UTC.