Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc Just Missed Earnings With A Surprise Loss - Here Are Analysts Latest Forecasts

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It's been a mediocre week for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc (NASDAQ:KNSA) shareholders, with the stock dropping 18% to US$22.59 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$0.18 per share on revenues of US$112m, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International

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NasdaqGS:KNSA Earnings and Revenue Growth November 1st 2024

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International are now predicting revenues of US$578.6m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a huge 51% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.51 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$573.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.60 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$35.83, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International at US$40.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$32.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 39% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 65% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 21% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

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