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A week ago, Premier, Inc. (NASDAQ:PINC) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 6.6% to hit US$248m. Premier also reported a statutory profit of US$0.70, which was an impressive 355% above what the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Premier
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from eight analysts covering Premier is for revenues of US$987.4m in 2025. This implies a disturbing 26% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop 14% to US$1.32 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$977.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.84 in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a considerable lift to earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.
The consensus price target rose 7.1% to US$20.88, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Premier analyst has a price target of US$24.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$19.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Premier is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Premier's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 32% to the end of 2025. This tops off a historical decline of 0.8% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Premier to suffer worse than the wider industry.