Week Ahead for FX, Bonds : U.S. Jobs Data in Focus -2-

Published: 2026-05-01 11:27:58 ET C

Published on 05/01/2026 at 11:27 am EDT

Attention will also turn to the federal budget due May 12. Economists expect measures including tax reforms and spending restraint to support fiscal sustainability and help contain inflation.

In New Zealand, first-quarter unemployment data due Wednesday are expected to show the labor market retains spare capacity, even as the Middle East conflict pushes up inflation.

The unemployment rate is seen holding at around 5.4%, reflecting conditions prior to the recent energy shock.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained a hawkish stance and signaled its commitment to meeting its inflation target, suggesting further rate increases remain possible despite a soft labor market.

Asia Manufacturing PMIs

A batch of Asian PMIs due Monday will show how manufacturers in Taiwan, Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia are coping with fluctuating commodity prices amid the Middle East conflict.

Major exporters in the region showed continued improvement in March, with demand holding up despite a volatile global environment. The latest readings may reflect a more direct impact from geopolitical tensions as disruptions to key shipping routes persist.

S&P Global data showed factory activity rose in March, underscoring resilience in Asia's export sector.

Southeast Asia

The Philippines and Indonesia will release first-quarter GDP data, offering insight into how these economies performed amid rising global uncertainty, though the impact of the Middle East conflict is unlikely to be fully reflected yet.

Philippine growth is expected to pick up to 4.3% on year, supported by base effects and stronger government spending, ING economists said.

Indonesia's economy likely remained resilient, with growth forecast at 5.6%, supported by festive spending, fiscal stimulus and base effects, DBS said. Momentum likely peaked in the first quarter and may moderate as higher energy costs and fiscal consolidation weigh on growth.

Several Southeast Asian economies will also release April inflation data, likely showing higher prices due to the global energy shock.

Thailand's consumer prices likely rose in April after a year of declines, reflecting higher domestic energy costs following the removal of a diesel price cap in late March, DBS said.

In the Philippines, the central bank expects April inflation at 5.6%-6.4%, up from 4.1% in March, citing higher petroleum prices, electricity costs and peso weakness.

"The pre-emptive rate hike by the BSP [on April 23] is expected to help anchor inflation expectations and contain the buildup of second?round effects," ANZ Research's Kausani Basak said.

Malaysia's central bank is expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.75% on Thursday, maintaining a data-dependent stance amid steady growth and manageable inflation, RHB said.

South Korea

South Korea is scheduled to release its April consumer inflation data on Wednesday, with most economists forecasting a notable pickup in price growth due to higher oil prices following the Middle East conflict.

Citigroup economist Jin Wook Kim said he expects the headline inflation to accelerate to 2.6% from 2.2% in March despite a series of government measures--including a price cap on refined oil products and fuel tax cuts--to cushion energy shocks.

That would be the highest since July 2024, Kim added.

ING economist Min Joo Kang also said she expects consumer price pressures, though limited by government measures for now, to intensify in the coming months.

The weaker won against the dollar is also expected to push up domestic prices, Kang added.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong will release advance first-quarter GDP data Tuesday. Goldman Sachs expects growth to accelerate to 3.5% on year, supported by improved activity data.

Retail sales volumes rose in the first two months of the year, Goldman said.

The services trade surplus likely widened in the first quarter, with inbound tourism recovering to about 88% of 2018 levels on average.

March retail sales data are due Wednesday.

Taiwan

Taiwan will release April inflation and trade data in the week. Inflation likely began to reflect energy price pass-through from the prolonged Middle East conflict.

Economists expect CPI growth to accelerate from March's 1.2%, with Citigroup forecasting 2.6%.

The economy grew 13.69% in the first quarter, the fastest pace in 39 years, driven by AI-related demand. Momentum likely continued into April, with exports expected to grow between 46.4% and 65.9%.

Any references to days are in local times.

Write to Jessica Fleetham at [email protected] and Jihye Lee at [email protected]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

05-01-26 1126ET