Otis Worldwide : Second Quarter 2024 Earnings webcast

OTIS

Corrected Transcript

24-Jul-2024

Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Q2 2024 Earnings Call

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Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Corrected Transcript

Q2 2024 Earnings Call

24-Jul-2024

CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS

Michael Rednor

Anurag Maheshwari

Vice President-Investor Relations, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Judith F. Marks

Cristina Méndez

Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Senior Vice President-Finance & Chief Financial Officer-EMEA, Otis

Worldwide Corp.

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OTHER PARTICIPANTS

Jeffrey Todd Sprague

Justin Pellegrino

Analyst, Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst, Melius Research LLC

Nigel Coe

Nick Housden

Analyst, Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Julian Mitchell

Jack Ayers

Analyst, Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst, TD Securities (USA) LLC

C. Stephen Tusa

Miguel Borrega

Analyst, JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst, Exane BNP Paribas

Joseph O'Dea

Analyst, Wells Fargo Securities LLC

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Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Corrected Transcript

Q2 2024 Earnings Call

24-Jul-2024

MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION SECTION

Operator: Good morning and welcome to Otis's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being carried live on the Internet and recorded for replay. Presentation materials are available for download from Otis's website at www.otis.com.

I'll now turn it over to Michael Rednor, Vice President, Investor Relations.

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Michael Rednor

Vice President-Investor Relations, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Thank you, Sara. Welcome to Otis's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Judy Marks; Anurag Maheshwari, and Cristina Méndez. Please note, except where otherwise noted, the company will speak to results from continuing operations excluding restructuring and significant non-recurring items. A reconciliation of these measures can be found in the appendix of the webcast. We also remind listeners that the presentation contains forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Otis's SEC filings, including our Form 10-K, and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, provide details on important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Judy.

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Judith F. Marks

Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Thank you, Mike, and good morning, afternoon, and evening everyone. Thank you for joining us. I hope all are safe and well. I'd like to welcome Cristina Méndez, who is joining us this morning on our earnings call. Cristina is an experienced executive who's been leading our finance team as CFO in the EMEA region for the past two and a half years, while also leading our global finance transformation under our UpLift program. I look forward to my partnership with Cristina to drive growth, operational execution, and value for our customers, colleagues and shareholders. I want to also take this opportunity to thank Anurag for his leadership and for all his contributions to our company, our services growth, and in championing our long term strategy.

Now, for earnings, starting with Q2 highlights on slide 3. Otis delivered a solid second quarter in the face of current economic challenges within China as the Service segment continued to drive strong performance. Service organic sales grew mid-single digits. Overall adjusted profit margin expanded by 110 basis points, and adjusted EPS grew 15%, marking our fourth consecutive quarter of 10% or greater adjusted EPS growth. With Service as our primary growth driver, we have set ourselves up well for the future by delivering maintenance portfolio growth of 4.2% and building our modernization backlog by 17% in the quarter. As a result of our steady business execution and capital allocation strategies, we generated $353 million in adjusted free cash flow, and returned $300 million to shareholders through share repurchases in the quarter, taking year-to-date repurchases to $600 million.

In June, we published our 2023 ESG report, outlining our progress towards our 13 ESG goals, explaining how this progress advances our business strategy while driving value for stakeholders. Importantly, this report includes a detailed description of our Scope 1, 2, and 3 greenhouse gas emission reduction goals. And we've continued to make progress towards our goals in 2024, including recently receiving ISO 45001 Certification, the international

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Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Corrected Transcript

Q2 2024 Earnings Call

24-Jul-2024

standard that specifies the requirements and good practices for effective occupational health and safety management systems at our factory in São Bernardo, Brazil.

Moving to our orders performance on slide 4. New Equipment orders were down 11% in the second quarter. High single digit growth in EMEA, driven by mid-teens growth in the Middle East, and low to mid-single digit growth in Asia-Pacific, was more than offset by a mid-teens decline in the Americas and a double digit decline in China. Our New Equipment backlog at constant currency was down 3% versus the prior year. In the Americas, we are seeing the impact of elevated interest rates on our New Equipment orders. In China, economic softness severely impacted our New Equipment orders, while orders grew in both Asia-Pacific, due to continued strength in the region, and EMEA, as our investment in product and coverage continues to perform well.

In our Services (sic) [Service] (00:04:44) segment, progress continued to pace with portfolio growth above 4% for the seventh consecutive quarter, along with 14% modernization orders growth, and continued growth in our modernization backlog, which increased 17% at constant currency. We had several exciting customer highlights in the second quarter, thanks to the dedication of our colleagues across all of our regions. In India, at the heart of the city of Delhi, Otis will install 12 sky rise units at the iconic Unity The Amaryllis Versace. Designed by Versace Home, this luxury development is one of the tallest residential buildings in Delhi.

We continue to perform well in the infrastructure segment, as evidenced by our next three major project highlights. In the United States, Otis is supporting the expansion of Terminal 3 West at San Francisco International Airport. As part of this project, Otis will install 15 new Gen3 elevators and 13 Link escalators while modernizing two elevators. SFO served more than 50 million passengers in 2023, and these upgrades will increase overall passenger capacity and international access.

In Germany, we are installing eight escalators for our long established customer, the City of Stuttgart. We'll dismantle the non-OTIS escalators that are currently in use and install our heavy traffic public escalators at four metro stations in the city center. In China, we've continued our more than 30-year relationship with the Shanghai Metro, booking several contracts in the quarter that total more than 475 units, including 311 escalators and moving walks for Line 23, 32 elevators, and 115 escalators for the new Chongqing Line, and 19 elevators for an extension of Line 12.

Turning to Q2 results on slide 5, Otis delivered net sales of $3.6 billion, with organic sales down 1%. Adjusted operating profit, excluding a $15 million foreign exchange headwind, was up $38 million, driven by the Service segment. Adjusted EPS grew approximately 15% or $0.14 in the quarter, driven by strong operational performance, and improvement in our tax rate. Benefits from minority interest and a lower share count offset headwinds from foreign exchange translation, and an increase in interest expense.

With that, I'll turn it over to Anurag to walk through our results in more detail.

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Anurag Maheshwari

Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Thank you, Judy. Starting with Q2 segment sales performance on slide 6. Total organic sales were down 1% in the quarter, driven by New Equipment, which was down 9% compared to the prior year. APAC grew approximately 10%, driven by strong performances in Southeast Asia and India, while the Americas grew low single digit. EMEA experienced a low single digit decline due to continued weakness in Central Europe, while China declined double digits, largely due to the deterioration in market conditions.

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Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Corrected Transcript

Q2 2024 Earnings Call

24-Jul-2024

New Equipment pricing was strong outside of China, up low to mid-single digits. China remains under intense price pressure, and although pricing in China was down year-over-year, it came in approximately flat sequentially, while the cost environment remains deflationary. Service sales were $2.2 billion, with organic sales growth of 5.1%, marking over three years of mid-single digit or greater growth in every quarter.

We grew in all regions at all lines of business, including approximately 5% in maintenance and repair as a result of strong portfolio growth, solid repair volumes and maintenance pricing, which was up 3.5 points, excluding the impact of mix and churn. Driven by continued double digit growth in Asia Pacific, mod organic sales increased about 6% in the quarter, and 8% in the first half.

Turning to Q2 segment operating performance on slide 7, New Equipment operating profit of $110 million was down $6 million at constant currency, mainly due to the impacts of lower volume and mix headwinds. Pricing outside of China, productivity, including benefits from UpLift, and commodity tailwinds largely offset the volume and mix impacts, netting to improved margins of 30 basis points to 7.7%, ahead of our expectation.

Service operating profit of $538 million increased $51 million at constant currency as drop through on higher volume, favorable pricing, and productivity, including benefits from UpLift, more than offset annual wage inflation. This led to margin expansion of 110 basis points in the quarter. Our focus on cost control, alongside the ramp of UpLift initiatives drove lower SG&A absolute dollars, while improving our adjusted SG&A as a percent of sales by 30 basis points year-over-year.

For the first half, despite an inflationary environment, our SG&A dollars reduced by approximately $30 million and improved by 30 basis points as a percent of sales. We are very pleased with our progress in UpLift across the three levers we've outlined, with benefits ramping quicker than anticipated. Our streamlined functional structure is yielding productivity benefits while allowing us to leverage our global scale to drive cost savings, especially with our digital technology operations, and other indirect spend. With solid Service performance, and while navigating a challenging New Equipment environment, we expanded overall operating profit margins by 110 basis points, and grew adjusted EPS $0.14 or 15%.

Shifting to cash, despite lower New Equipment orders, we generated $353 million of free cash flow in the second quarter and we expect to largely reverse the working capital build by year end. Overall, we had a very strong first half performance, overcoming weakness in the China market. We grew organic sales 1.2%, led by performance in the Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific, which were up mid-single digits, as well as strength in our Service segment. This growth, in conjunction with good traction on UpLift, productivity, pricing, and commodity tailwinds helped us expand margins by 100 basis points and grow EPS 13%, positioning us well for the second half.

Let me now turn it back to Judy to discuss our 2024 outlook.

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Judith F. Marks

Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Now on slide 8, before turning to our updated 2024 financial outlook, let me briefly update you on our industry outlook. For the New Equipment market, our expectations for the Americas and EMEA remain unchanged, down low single digit in units. We now expect Asia to be down high single digits in units versus the prior outlook of down mid-single digits, driven by weakness in China. There is no change to our outlook for Asia-Pacific as the region has continued to perform well. We're revising China to be down 10% to down 15% as activity is weaker than we previously expected.

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Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Corrected Transcript

Q2 2024 Earnings Call

24-Jul-2024

While New Equipment markets remain under pressure, we continue to see strength in the Service market, with low single digit growth in the Americas and EMEA, and mid-single digit growth in Asia. The global install base is expected to grow mid-single digits in 2024, adding roughly 1 million units from units that were installed within the last two years, and are now rolling off their warranty period.

Turning to Otis's 2024 financial outlook, we now expect sales in the range of $14.3 billion to $14.5 billion, with organic sales growth of 1% to 3%. While we see continued strength in the Service business for the remainder of the year, this decrease in organic sales versus our prior outlook is driven by New Equipment, which Anurag will discuss in a moment.

Adjusted operating profit is in line with prior expectations, still expected to be up $135 million to $175 million at actual currency, and up $160 million to $190 million at constant currency. Adjusted EPS is now expected in the range of $3.85 to $3.90, up 9% to 10%, with $0.02 improvement versus the low end of the prior guide, driven by strong operational performance, and a benefit from a lower share count. We anticipate adjusted free cash flow to come within a range of $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion.

Before handing it back to Anurag to outline the 2024 segment outlook in more detail, let me turn to slide 9 to provide an update on Project UpLift and our progress to date. We now anticipate run rate savings of $175 million by mid-2025, as we have made solid progress executing on the program. Two areas where we're seeing additional benefit versus our prior expectations are through further streamlining of our global operating model, and incremental optimization of indirect spend in areas such as digital technology and infrastructure. As we exit 2024, our anticipated end year savings are now slated to be approximately $60 million, with a 2024 exit run rate of approximately $100 million. Overall, program is on track, we're performing well versus our internal benchmarks and timeline, and we look forward to sharing additional updates with you in the coming quarters.

Anurag, over to you.

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Anurag Maheshwari

Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Thank you, Judy. Taking a more detailed look at our outlook and starting with sales on slide 10. We now expect total organic sales to be up 1% to 3%. Overall, New Equipment organic sales are now expected to be down mid- single digits from market-driven decline in China, which we now expect to be down approximately 20%. The outlook for the Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific remains unchanged, up mid-single digits combined. Service organic sales are anticipated to grow 6% to 7%, in line with prior guidance. This includes maintenance and repair within a range of 5.5% to 6.5%. And for modernization, we anticipate growth of 8% to 9% as solid orders momentum and an expanding backlog provide good line of sight to achieve approximately 10% growth in the second half.

Turning to slide 11. At constant currency, operating profits should grow $160 million to $190 million, unchanged versus prior expectations, with improving contributions from Service and productivity, including UpLift, offsetting New Equipment volume and mix headwinds. In Service, we now expect operating profit margin to expand approximately 75 basis points, an increase of 25 basis points versus the prior guide, driven by solid volumes and even better productivity.

For New Equipment, despite the weakness in China, operating profit margin is expected to be roughly flat versus the prior year, a change versus our prior estimate of flat to up 10 basis points. Productivity and pricing are offsetting the added volume and mix impact from a weaker China outlook. We now expect overall adjusted operating profit margin expansion of 80 basis points as a result of Service volume, productivity, and pricing

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Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Corrected Transcript

Q2 2024 Earnings Call

24-Jul-2024

tailwinds. This represents a 30-basis point improvement versus our prior outlook. Turning to cash flow, we expect to achieve adjusted free cash flow in the range of $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion with net income growth, partially offset by changes in working capital.

Moving to the 2024 EPS bridge on slide 12. We have raised the low end of our outlook for adjusted EPS by $0.02 to a range of $3.85 to $3.90. At the midpoint, this is $0.34 of EPS growth versus the prior year, driven by operational performance. At constant currency, we expect approximately $0.32 of operating profit growth level loaded between the first and the second half. Reductions in the effective tax rate and a lower share count more than offset headwinds from higher interest expense and Forex.

In closing, first half results demonstrate our ability to continue performing despite macro headwinds. There is a lot in our control in the second half, and we are focused on growing our portfolio, leveraging our expanding mod backlog, while ramping on the UpLift program, and driving productivity throughout the organization. This sets us up well to achieve a full year outlook of approximately 10% EPS growth, in line with our medium term guide.

With that, Sara, please open the line for questions.

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QUESTION AND ANSWER SECTION

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open.

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Jeffrey Todd Sprague

Analyst, Vertical Research Partners LLC

Thank you. Good morning, Judy, Anurag and Cristina.

Q

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Judith F. Marks

Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer, Otis Worldwide Corp.

Good morning, Jeff.

A

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Jeffrey Todd Sprague

Analyst, Vertical Research Partners LLC

Q

Good morning. I guess, first, Anurag, we're going to miss you, but I'm guessing we're not really going to miss you, but do you have anything to say about what your plans are?

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Anurag Maheshwari

Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President, Otis Worldwide Corp.

A

There's more to come here, but focused on closing the earnings call right now and a smooth transition with Cristina. Thanks for the question, Jeff.

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Jeffrey Todd Sprague

Analyst, Vertical Research Partners LLC

Q

Awesome. Judy, can we drill a little bit more just into China? Obviously, it's kind of readily apparent, things are just challenging there from a macro standpoint. But I think you noted Service was growing mid-single digit in Asia.

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Corrected Transcript

Q2 2024 Earnings Call

24-Jul-2024

I don't know if you said China. If you did, I missed it. Maybe just give us a little bit more color on sort of the counteractions you're taking there to kind of support and drive profitability in-country.

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Judith F. Marks

Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer, Otis Worldwide Corp.

A

Yeah, thanks, Jeff. And great to be with you this morning. Our Service business in China, specifically, units are up high teens for another quarter. Mod orders are up high single digit, mod sales are up double digit, and we're really pleased with the pivot we've made. And now this is now a multi-year strategy we've been implementing to have a greater focus and yield in China on Service. Almost a third of our revenue now in China is in Service. And that's twice what it was when we spun.

Our portfolio has more than doubled and is up again this quarter, as I said, high teens. So, our service strategy is coming up nicely, and we're seeing the acceleration of mod in China and anticipate that to continue to move double digit as we look out into the medium term for China. The New Equipment market does remain weak. We called it down 15% for the second quarter after being down 10% in the first quarter, but with what we know on the ground from Sally and the team, for the full year, we're saying it's going to be down 10% to 15%.

Our team has done a really nice job in being able to manage the cost side in a very competitive market, but that market this year we're saying for China is going to be between 425,000 and 450,000 units. Again, focused on growing Service, continuing to drive out cost in a deflationary environment, but always balancing price and volume so that we make sure that our backlog remains healthy in China. 425,000 to 450,000 units is still a very nicely sized market, but this is the third year of decreases, and I think our strategy and implementation has pivoted to Service to be able to reflect that.

It's why we took our guide down in terms of top line revenue now to be organic 1% to 3%. That is all driven by this New Equipment decline there, but as you could see with our profitability this quarter for the first half, even our profit margin expansion in New Equipment, despite being down several hundred million dollars of revenue, you're seeing the resilience in not just our Service-driven model, but I think you're seeing, again, sustained quarter-after- quarter, year-after-year performance in those items that we control.

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Jeffrey Todd Sprague

Analyst, Vertical Research Partners LLC

Great. Thank you for all that color. Appreciate it. I'll pass the baton.

Q

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Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

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Nigel Coe

Analyst, Wolfe Research LLC

Q

Thanks. Good morning. And Anurag, you'll be missed, but again I'm pretty sure you're going to pop up somewhere soon. Cristina, congratulations on the promotion. So, just want to pick up on the baton on the China question. I'm just wondering, is there any change in your strategy which has been clearly focused on gaining the share, and is there now more of a focus on preserving margin there? And I'm just curious on the NCI, kind of expense being flat at $100 million. That seems to indicate that China EBIT is actually holding up rather well. So, just curious if there's a change in strategy and that comment on margins.

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Judith F. Marks

Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer, Otis Worldwide Corp.

A

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Otis Worldwide Corp. (OTIS)

Corrected Transcript

Q2 2024 Earnings Call

24-Jul-2024

Yeah, let me take the first one and I'll turn over to Anurag, although we're kind of fighting over the second one because we both want to answer it. So Nigel, it's no change in strategy. What you're probably not seeing behind the scenes is how our team has, again, continued to pivot. We continue to do product introductions and we continue to drive delivery in terms of our orders through our agents and distributors. Our agents and distributors, again, think about 2,400 of them, a lot of them have also taken on modernization as well. So, we've expanded their remit so that we continue to prepare for the future, which is going to be a more mod-heavy future regardless of what happens structurally on the New Equipment side.

So, the strategies, it's on track. We know what we're doing there. We've had significant China share gain since spin, but we're not going to take on loss-making units for the sake of share gain. And that's something I've been telling you now quarter after quarter, and we're going to be consistent with that methodology versus giving up price and then having that negative piece in the backlog. We just don't think that's - we don't need that for our business, and we don't think it's wise. But Anurag, I'll let you touch on the second half.

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Anurag Maheshwari

Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President, Otis Worldwide Corp.

A

Yeah. Thanks, Judy. So, Nigel, if you look at the New Equipment market in China, it is clearly challenging and the revenue in the second quarter was down as well, double-digit as we said. Okay. The reason you don't see on the NCI line is because we're able to manage the volume headwind through productivity, through growing our Service business. And it's not only all across all the other regions, it's also in China as well. So, we do what we can control. So, from a margin perspective and a profit perspective, we've been able to preserve it.

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Judith F. Marks

Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer, Otis Worldwide Corp.

A

Yeah. The last thing I'll add on NCI is our Middle East business has picked up at a very good pace. It's one of several highlights for EMEA, and you see EMEA orders are up, EMEA is strong in revenue, and EMEA is a large modernization opportunity for us, including the Middle East. Outside of China, the majority of our remaining NCI is in the Middle East, Nigel.

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Nigel Coe

Analyst, Wolfe Research LLC

Q

Okay. That's great. Thanks. That's great color. And then, one quick one for Anurag. I want to make sure that he works before he leaves. So, the free cash flow kept down to [ph] $1.5 billion (00:26:01). Is that a function really of the New Equipment weakness we're seeing, and therefore we're seeing kind of a headwind on advance payable - advance deposits from customers? Is that really what's happening here or is there something else we need to consider?

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Anurag Maheshwari

Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President, Otis Worldwide Corp.

A

Yeah, thanks. I think you got it pretty much, but let me give a little bit more color, right? In the first half, we built about $300 million of working capital and probably due to two reasons. The first reason, what you mentioned, on New Equipment orders, we typically receive down payments and that order environment has obviously been challenging for the first half. But second, which I think is the largest driver, is that the Service business grew faster than the New Equipment business and we tend to be cash ahead in New Equipment while we collect in Service after we perform the work.

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Corrected Transcript

Q2 2024 Earnings Call

24-Jul-2024

So, these two are the drivers which got us to build $300 million of working capital. So, for the back half of the year, we expect to generate about $825 million in GAAP net income. And if you reverse about $200 million or more in working capital, that will get us closer to the $1.6 billion. We, of course, will look to do better like the same way as we did in the second half of last year, and especially in receivables. And if the New Equipment orders do a little bit better than expected, then this could be a source of upside and we could get us to about $1.6 billion of free cash.

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Nigel Coe

Analyst, Wolfe Research LLC

That's great. Thank you.

Q

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Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Your line is open.

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Julian Mitchell

Analyst, Barclays Capital, Inc.

Q

Hi, good morning and congratulations to Anurag and Cristina. Maybe just my first question is really on that New Equipment organic sales outlook sort of globally and then more with a focus on the Americas, I suppose, not so much China. So, the backlog was down 3% year-on-year in June, your sales are down, I think in the back half in New Equipment, mid-single digits. But I wondered kind of how much of a lead time now we're getting from that backlog into your revenues for 2025.

If I look at the Americas, for example, your TTM orders were down mid-teens in New Equipment, but you're still guiding revenue this year up mid-single. So, in something like the Americas, does the confluence of those two things mean 2025 sales in New Equipment are almost certainly down a reasonable amount and then any sort of broader global color on that?

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Judith F. Marks

Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer, Otis Worldwide Corp.

A

Sure, Julian. I think it's a great question and very, very - it's the right analysis. Let me first give you an overview of New Equipment backlog around the globe, and then let me specifically dive into the Americas. We were down 3% and our 12-month rolling New Equipment orders are obviously down 7.7%. The Americas backlog, though, is up low single-digit. EMEA is up low single-digit.Asia-Pac is up mid-teens, and China is down obviously, which is driving Asia down for the broader picture.

Our New Equipment outlook right now is to exit 2024 at the company level, flattish to slightly down as we expect, backlog could fall in the second half, but it's really going to get defined by the New Equipment second-half orders. And our line of sight to second-half orders look strong, especially in the Americas and some other region. And let me just tell you, we have about an 18-month line of sight to the Americas, the majority of it being North America, in terms of performing our backlog. And as I said, the Americas backlog is up low single-digit. The New Equipment sales in the Americas came in as expected in the second quarter, low single-digit,year-on-year comps as well as major projects. We anticipate that picking up in the second half.

We also anticipate the New Equipment orders in the second half for the Americas to be positive. We can see that based on proposal activity, we can see that based on awards we have that haven't yet been booked, and we believe you'll see that starting to come through in the third quarter.

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Otis Worldwide Corporation published this content on 24 July 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 24 July 2024 18:12:07 UTC.