EMEA Morning Briefing : Cease-Fire Between Israel and Lebanon Takes Effect
NFLX
Published on 04/17/2026 at 12:17 am EDT
MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
EU foreign trade; trading updates from Ericsson, Autoliv
Opening Call:
European stock futures were mixed early Friday. Asian stock benchmarks fell; the dollar edged higher; Treasury yields were littlle changed; oil futures dropped; while gold rose slightly.
Equities:
Stock futures point to a mixed open as traders assessed developments in the Middle East.
A cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect at midnight local time. President Trump said he expects a deal with Iran will be announced fairly soon, and said it would give the U.S. "free oil and free Hormuz Strait." Trump also said that negotiations with Iran could take place this weekend.
However, "risk sentiment remains fragile as an immediate deal remains unlikely given that the countries remain far apart on key issues," said Skye Masters, head of markets research at National Australia Bank.
Forex:
The U.S. dollar index may be due for a minor move higher in the near term, based on technical analysis, StoneX's Matt Simpson said. A "small bullish outside day" pattern formed Thursday around the 200-day simple moving average and the two-day relative strength index was deeply oversold.
However, there are several resistance levels, including the 200-day exponential moving average at 98.44 for dollar index bulls to test--or for bears to monitor--for signs of a swing high to rejoin a broader bearish move, Simpson added.
Bonds:
The 10-year Treasury yield is unlikely to surge past 4.5%, said Truist's Chip Hughey. Yields spiked last month as the war in Iran boosted oil prices.
"Locking in longer-dated fixed income became more attractive with that really abrupt spike in yields," Hughey said. He added that the type of inflation concerns that would push the benchmark yield above 4.5% would also trigger growth concerns that typically have the opposite effect. That high level could also push investors to sell stocks and buy bonds, also capping yields.
Energy:
Oil fell early Friday amid signs of a potential U.S.-Iran deal that could ease supply disruptions in the Middle East.
"Our base case is that energy flows will start to make a gradual recovery through the second quarter," ING said, adding that flows will likely remain below pre-war levels until at least end-2026. The bank sees Brent averaging $96/bbl over 2Q and $89/bbl over 2026.
Metals:
Gold rose slightly in Asia on hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal. "A diplomatic resolution could ease energy-driven inflation pressures, which could weigh on Treasury yields and improve the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold," Critical Metals' Tony Sage said.
"However, any setback could inject volatility and downside risks for the [precious] metal in the near-term," he added.
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Copper is trading within a tight range, with robust restocking from Chinese manufacturers outweighing growth concerns stemming from the ongoing conflict in Iran, ANZ said.
Lower copper prices have revived deferred demand during the peak demand season, while expectations around countries ramping up efforts to increase power infrastructure are also supporting demand. Price arbitrage continues to draw imports into the U.S. as investors await a decision on refined copper tariffs by the end of June, ANZ added.
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Iron ore prices were volatile in Asian trading, swinging between gains and losses. A significant decrease in iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports from the previous month has led to a decline in port inventories, Baocheng Futures said.
However, arrivals are expected to rebound as shipments from overseas miners climb. Meanwhile, uncertainty continues over further demand for iron ore by steel mills, Baocheng added.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Fed's Miran Says He May Trim Rate Cut Outlook, Citing Inflation
The Trump administration spent months demanding the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. This week, two people with close ties to the White House said waiting to move makes some sense.
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, speaking at an economic forum in Washington, D.C., said Thursday he is reconsidering his rate cut outlook for the year, trimming his projection from four cuts to potentially three and acknowledging the inflation picture had become more complicated even before war with Iran began.
Tariff Refunds for Importers Are Getting Closer. So Are New Levies.
Businesses are in for a tariff-related whipsaw.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection is testing its system to issue refunds for the global tariffs that the Supreme Court struck down in February. But several Trump officials have said the administration is closer to unveiling new tariffs that will replace those levies, to achieve a so-called "tariff equilibrium."
Trump Bets Economic Pain Will Finally Force Iran to Reopen Strait
An intensifying U.S. naval blockade of Iran is aimed at inflicting such severe economic pain that Tehran will be compelled to submit quickly to Washington's demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and abandon its nuclear ambitions.
With crude exports from Iranian ports effectively stopped up, the country will be deprived of a large chunk of its oil revenue. It could also be forced to start shutting down oil wells within weeks as it runs out of storage space, a costly and damaging prospect that could impair production for years to come.
Netflix Chair Reed Hastings to Leave Board in June
Netflix Chairman and co-founder Reed Hastings will step down from the company's board after his term expires in June, the streaming giant said Thursday, ending a nearly three-decade run at the direct-to-consumer pioneer.
Netflix said Hastings has decided not stand for re-election to its board so he can focus on philanthropy and other pursuits.
Sam Altman's Side Hustles Blur the Line Between OpenAI's Interests and His Own
When Sam Altman was briefly fired, then rehired as OpenAI CEO in 2023, the company's board of directors had fretted over what little they knew about his personal investments and whether they posed potential conflicts.
A newly formed board pledged to fix the problem, but it never went away. As OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, hurtles toward a planned initial public offering this year, valued at around $850 billion, the question persists-how to determine whether decisions serve the company's best interest or Altman's.
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Expected Major Events for Friday
06:30/POR: Feb Balance of Payments
07:00/SVK: Feb New orders in industry
07:00/SPN: Feb Industrial Orders & Turnover
08:00/EU: Feb Euro area balance of payments
08:00/ITA: Feb Foreign Trade EU
08:30/UK: Mar Monthly Insolvency statistics
09:00/ITA: Feb Balance of Payments
09:00/EU: Feb Foreign trade
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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
04-17-26 0016ET