Investors in BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.3% to close at US$90.88 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenue was dismal, with revenues of €188m coming in some 50% below forecasts. The only bright spot was that statutory losses of €1.31 per share were 14% smaller than the analysts had predicted. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for BioNTech

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from BioNTech's 18 analysts is for revenues of €2.79b in 2024. This reflects a credible 2.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -€1.92 per share in 2024. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of €2.80b and €2.31 per share in losses. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed BioNTech'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a cut to the loss per share forecasts in particular.

The average price target held steady at US$115, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on BioNTech, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$171 and the most bearish at US$89.25 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that BioNTech's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 36% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than BioNTech.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$115, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for BioNTech going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that BioNTech is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.