Investors in Kogan.com (ASX:KGN) have made a massive return of 585% over the past five years

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It hasn't been the best quarter for Kogan.com Ltd (ASX:KGN) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 23% in that time. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been spectacular. In fact, during that period, the share price climbed 512%. Impressive! So it might be that some shareholders are taking profits after good performance. The most important thing for savvy investors to consider is whether the underlying business can justify the share price gain. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for the long term, so spare a thought for those caught in the 56% decline over the last twelve months. Anyone who held for that rewarding ride would probably be keen to talk about it.

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

Check out our latest analysis for Kogan.com

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the last half decade, Kogan.com became profitable. Sometimes, the start of profitability is a major inflection point that can signal fast earnings growth to come, which in turn justifies very strong share price gains.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
earnings-per-share-growth

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Kogan.com's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Kogan.com's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Kogan.com's TSR of 585% over the last 5 years is better than the share price return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 17% in the last year, Kogan.com shareholders lost 56%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 47%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Kogan.com better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Kogan.com you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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