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The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Janus International Group, Inc. (NYSE:JBI), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well. The stock price has risen 7.1% to US$7.80 over the past week. Investors could be forgiven for changing their mind on the business following the downgrade; but it's not clear if the revised forecasts will lead to selling activity.
Following the downgrade, the consensus from five analysts covering Janus International Group is for revenues of US$850m in 2025, implying a definite 15% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Prior to the latest estimates, the analysts were forecasting revenues of US$955m in 2025. The consensus view seems to have become more pessimistic on Janus International Group, noting the substantial drop in revenue estimates in this update.
View our latest analysis for Janus International Group
Notably, the analysts have cut their price target 32% to US$9.00, suggesting concerns around Janus International Group's valuation.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 12% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 16% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.5% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Janus International Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their revenue estimates for next year. They're also anticipating slower revenue growth than the wider market. With a serious cut to next year's expectations and a falling price target, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were becoming wary of Janus International Group.
As you can see, the analysts clearly aren't bullish, and there might be good reason for that. We've identified some potential issues with Janus International Group's financials, such as a weak balance sheet. Learn more, and discover the 2 other flags we've identified, for free on our platform here.